It's been dropping for several days, and today it suddenly rallied. How do you feel—relieved or regretful for not buying the dip?

March 24, 2026 14:07

BTC 70,355, ETH 2,136—today finally delivered some justification. BTC pulled back from the 67,300 low, ETH rallied from 2,021 low to current levels, with gains of 2.52% and 3.74% respectively. More importantly, the SuperTrend 1H on both coins turned green again—BTC support at 68,865, ETH support at 2,074, the bullish channel reopened. But celebrating too early is the most expensive tuition fee in this market. The real question now is: is this green turn genuine, or just another false move?

The BTC chart contains massive information. The left side shows a long red decline from previous highs straight down to 67,300, with virtually no meaningful rebounds in between. The rally on the right looks completely different—volume concentrated at the breakout point. Look at that big candle that shot up to 71,789; its volume bar is the largest in this entire period. This isn't a volume trap; real money is seriously pushing. SuperTrend turned green smoothly with support at 68,865, current price 70,355 sitting nearly 1,500 above support. But MACD data deserves attention: DIF 291.6, DEA 405.4, MACD histogram -113.8, DIF still below DEA, golden cross not yet formed, momentum still needs one more push. After surging to 71,789 and pulling back to current 70,355, the pullback is nearly 1,400, volume also shrank from peak to 439. Whether support holds is critical.

ETH moved even more decisively. From 2,021 it shot straight up in one big candle to 2,199, a move of 8.8%, with volume explosion even more obvious than BTC—that top candle's volume far exceeds all previous bars, indicating large capital concentrated entry at that moment. SuperTrend turned green with support at 2,074, current price 2,136 sitting 60 above support. But after surging to 2,199 it also pulled back quickly, now at 2,136, volume shrank to 9,053, MA5 is 83,823, MA10 is 98,136, volume now less than one-tenth of the moving average, indicating big money rushed in but retail didn't follow through, insufficient momentum.

Common characteristics in both charts: SuperTrend turning green is real, volume expanding at key breakouts is real, but pullback after surging and rapid volume contraction are also real. Bulls are retaking the lead now, but whether they can hold remains to be verified.

Multi-Bear Probability

BTC│Current Price 70,355
🚀 Retest 68,865 support and hold, then attack 71,789 previous high (40%)
The first retest after SuperTrend turns green is normal. As long as 68,865 holds, this is a standard bull structure—no break on retest means it's a buy point. If volume expands again after contracting at low levels, 71,789 previous high becomes the next target. Breaking above means targeting 72,500–73,000.
⚖️ Consolidation in 70,000–71,500 range (30%)
MACD golden cross not yet formed, momentum still needs a breath, short-term may consolidate sideways in this range. After MACD golden cross confirms, direction becomes clearer. Consolidation period isn't optimal trading time.
📉 Volume insufficient, pullback to test 69,500 (20%)
Volume shrank rapidly after surging, profit-taking kicked in, price slipped back near 69,500. As long as 68,865 SuperTrend support doesn't break, bull structure remains intact, becomes an even better low-entry opportunity.
☠️ Break below 68,865, green turn fails (10%)
Support breaking means this rally was another false breakout, 67,300 low re-enters view. If this happens, exit quickly; don't hold thinking "it'll come back."

ETH│Current Price 2,136
🚀 Hold 2,074 support, attack 2,199 previous high (40%)
ETH's rally had even more explosive volume than BTC, indicating higher capital recognition of ETH. If SuperTrend support at 2,074 holds, next step is challenging 2,199 again. Breaking above means targeting 2,210–2,250 range.
⚖️ Consolidation in 2,074–2,175 range building strength (30%)
Volume shrank rapidly from peak, needs time to gather again. Grinding back and forth in this range, wait for volume return before choosing direction. ETH's consolidation structure healthier than BTC, 2,074 is the floor line during consolidation.
📉 Retest near 2,100, testing support absorption (20%)
Insufficient volume causes minor pullback, testing whether 2,100–2,074 range has buying support. Near SuperTrend support here—if capital is defending it's a buy point; if not defended, that's the problem.
☠️ Break below 2,074, green turn ends (10%)
Support lost, previous big candle becomes a fake breakout, 2,021 low faces second test. Worst case scenario, currently lowest probability, but can't be careless.

Operations:
This SuperTrend green turn came with obvious volume expansion, higher quality than previous false turns. But rapid volume contraction after surging and MACD golden cross not yet confirmed means chasing long now isn't optimal timing—highest cost-performance entry points are near support retests: BTC look at 68,865–69,500, ETH look at 2,074–2,100, enter only after stabilization signals, stop-loss below support.
Short positions not considered for now; doing contrarian shorts right after trend turns green carries too much risk, until support clearly breaks.
Wait for retest, find buy points, this time might be real.

⚠️ Content for reference only, not investment advice. Markets carry risk, trade independently.
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