Market Outlook

71800 faced resistance and pulled back, with key support at the 695-690 range.
In our previous analysis, we suggested that after reaching 71800, a pullback might occur, though we did not consider it a major top. Last night, after touching 71800, the market began to retrace, currently around 69500.
The logic behind the pullback from 71800 is that it may sweep through EQH before declining, and the actual movement has been consistent with this.
The support levels below are 69500 (Monday mid) and 69000 (Tuesday night low). If support holds here again, there is still a short-term chance to move upward toward the 73-74 range.
If this level is broken, then the Monday Low at 67300 is an absolutely critical level that must not be breached. Falling below it would mean a failed weekly rebound.
I personally lean toward the view that, after support at 695-690, the price will test the 73-74 range again within this week.
Regarding the premium, since the 19th, it has been in CB negative premium, indicating that risk aversion in the US market remains strong.
However, we also need to point out that during the rebound from December 15 to January 15, CB was also in negative premium (with some short-term positive premiums at the top), so long-term negative premium and decline are not entirely the same. This was mentioned in previous market views.
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