Title: 120,000 People Liquidated, I Didn’t Sleep Well Last Night

Body:
Brothers, good afternoon.

Last night’s market movement had me scrolling on my phone until 3 a.m. I watched Bitcoin slide from 68,000 to 65,700, like riding a slide. 120,000 people got liquidated, losing $446 million, with 87% being long positions. These numbers are cold and impersonal, but think about it—how many of these 120,000 people had saved up their hard-earned money just to take a shot? The market shows no mercy to anyone.

Regarding the “triple pressure”: geopolitical conflicts, big traders selling BTC for gold; soaring US bond yields, offering nearly 5% interest without doing anything, who’s willing to play high-risk games with you; options expiration, large funds deliberately suppressing prices before settlement. When these three events hit together, it creates a perfect “long slaughterhouse.”

On-chain signals: people are really fleeing. Bitcoin active addresses, which were over 930,000 last August, have dropped to 650,000. A 30% decline. To put it plainly: many people are quitting. Not just complaining and saying they’re done, but not even opening their wallets. This coldness is scarier than price drops.

Regarding the future market, I’ll say three things. 68,000 has become the ceiling; don’t even talk about reversing if it can’t break back above. 60,000 is the next line of defense, with a large amount of put options pressing there—break below that, and it’s a vacuum zone. The Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI data in early April show inflation is still hard to tame, so don’t expect risk assets to perform well.

Finally, I want to be honest. What I fear most isn’t the market continuing to fall, but people saying “Here’s the opportunity, go all-in.” Don’t do it. More people die trying to catch the bottom than those who get caught chasing the top.

It’s not just falling, but some say “Here’s the opportunity, go all-in.” Don’t believe it. More people die trying to bottom-fish than those who buy at the peak. I’ve completely removed my leverage now, neither guessing the bottom nor escaping at the top, letting the market find its own way.

An old veteran once told me something I’ve kept in mind: “This market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is you still being here.” Don’t fall before dawn. Take it slow—living longer is better than anything.