A new month, and market sentiment has been ignited—signals of easing in the Middle East situation combined with Trump's upcoming speech, with bulls shouting "reversal" after a monthly candle close in the green.

But the more emotions are running high, the more we need to stay calm. The game of interests between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, and compensation is bound to be lengthy. One speech is far from enough to establish a substantive framework. Currently, we are in a typical "buy the rumor" phase, with prices already pricing in optimistic expectations. The risk of "sell the fact" after the speech is accumulating. This rally is driven by news, lacking intrinsic buying support.

In terms of strategy, I prefer to go short on rallies, entering in batches when sentiment is euphoric before the speech, and avoiding chasing the highs.

ETH: Short position at 2150-2180, add at 2200, target 2030
BTC: Short position at 69000-70300, add at 70800, target 66000
Set stop-loss based on personal risk tolerance.

Short-term overheating and long-term reality mismatch will eventually realign.