Based on the latest data as of April 1, 2026, the gold and crude oil markets are experiencing significant divergence due to the dramatic changes in Middle East geopolitical tensions: gold has surged sharply, while crude oil has suffered a heavy decline. The market's core focus is entirely on signals of easing in the US-Iran situation.

📈 Gold: Rebound to recover $4,700, short-term pressure alleviated

On April 1, gold prices rebounded strongly, with COMEX gold futures briefly rising to $4,751, and spot gold surpassing the $4,700 mark.

· Reason for the rebound: Easing of US-Iran tensions reduced market concerns about further US interest rate hikes, while US Treasury yields fell, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold.
· Divergence in outlook:
· Short-term view: The rally is temporarily seen as an oversold rebound. If tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate again or oil prices rise, gold may still face selling pressure.
· Long-term view: Institutions generally remain optimistic about medium- to long-term trends. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold could rise to $5,400 by year-end; Nanhua Futures believes Q2 will be a period of consolidation and bottoming.

🛢️ Crude Oil: Drop of over 10%, geopolitical premium rapidly recedes

International oil prices plummeted sharply, with Brent crude briefly falling below $100, WTI crude dropping over 4%, and domestic crude futures main contracts falling more than 11% at one point.

· Reason for the decline: The key factor is the expectation that the US-Iran conflict may end, quickly eroding the "war premium" that had been supporting supply disruptions.
· Outlook:
· Beware of rebounds: Institutions warn that the current easing is merely "lip service," and if negotiations make no substantive progress, oil prices could spike again.
· Shift in focus: Even if the conflict ends, the market has already priced in higher geopolitical risk premiums, making it difficult for oil prices to return to pre-conflict levels around $65.

📊 Core driver: Key signals from the US-Iran situation

The current market volatility is entirely driven by the following news:

· Ceasefire signals: Trump stated that the US will end military operations against Iran within "two to three weeks"; Iran's president also expressed a willingness to "end the war."
· Potential risks: Iran's foreign minister said trust levels with the US are "zero," and the US military is deploying three aircraft carriers to the Middle East, leaving the situation still uncertain.

In simple terms, the market movement on April 1 was triggered by short-term easing of geopolitical risks, leading to gold short covering and oil long liquidation.

Please note that this week, the market still faces considerable uncertainty, including the key date set by Trump on April 6 and the upcoming US non-farm payroll data release. Short-term volatility may intensify, so risk management is advised. #创作者冲榜