Short-term may still push higher, but the upward space is not very large; a quick rally and then done.

Currently, the situation and market are indeed in a high-level phase dominated by bears, with chaotic news and extremely high risks.

1. Situation: Ceasefire turns into a show, Holmium strikes again

Promised a two-week ceasefire, but as soon as it took effect, Israel + Trump disrupted it: Lebanon is not within the ceasefire scope, Israeli military continues bombing.

Iran countered by closing the Strait of Hormuz again, oil tankers turn around.

Trump talks while issuing tough words; Iran also hardens its stance.

The so-called “ceasefire agreement” is basically dead in name only, ready to explode at any time.

2. Market: Bears dominate, news as a meat grinder

Bitcoin yesterday surged to 72,700 on the ceasefire news, but it was just a pulse from the news, with no volume or sustained buying.

Now, both longs and shorts are exploding, false and true news flying around, only short-term bears are repeatedly harvesting.

Structurally: weak rebound, long upper shadows, heavy selling pressure above 73k.

3. Short-term strategy

Primarily short at high levels, light positions, quick in and out, strict stop-loss

Resistance (shorting zone)

First level: 71,500–72,500 (around 72k you mentioned)

Second level: 73,800–74,800 (extreme high-touch zone)

Targets (take profit)

First target: 69,000

Break below: 67,800, 66,600

Stop-loss (must be set)

Enter at 72,500 → stop-loss at 73,500 above

Enter around 74,000 → stop-loss at 75,000 above

Logic

Geopolitical tensions worsen repeatedly, risk appetite cools again

Bitcoin uses good news to offload, rebound is unsustainable

Above 72k is a prime zone for bears, short squeeze space is limited

4. Risk reminder

Trump + Iran can reverse statements at any time, quick turnaround.

There are many short positions with liquidation orders around 72k, easy to trigger stop hunts.

Only trade light positions for short-term, no holding through, no heavy positions, no gambling on news.