Strait of Hormuz Blockade—Energy Supply Faces a Shock

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated sharply on April 13. U.S. President Trump announced that, starting at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on April 13, the U.S. would impose a blockade on all ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, and any Iranian ships approaching the U.S. blockade line would be sunk. Iran has quickly and forcefully responded—an official spokesperson of the Hatam Ansar Central Command of Iran’s armed forces explicitly said that enemy vessels “are not entitled, now or in the future, to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.”

According to Trump, on the 12th, 34 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, but the claim was immediately refuted by Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, which said that over the past 7 days the Strait’s average daily number of passing ships was only 5 to 12, most of which were related to Iran.

⚠️ The actual consequences of the blockade: This blockade is expected to prevent about 2 million barrels of Iranian oil per day from entering the world market, further aggravating global supply tightness. Affected by this, international oil prices quickly surged back above $100. WTI crude rose by more than 9% at one point to $105.52 per barrel, and Brent crude rose to $102.02 per barrel. Goldman Sachs previously warned that if the strait remains closed for another month, the average level of Brent crude in 2026 could exceed $100 per barrel; if the closure lasts longer and production in some regions is damaged, the third-quarter average could be as high as $120 per barrel. Some analysts also noted that if the conflict expands further and the global supply shortfall breaks through 15 million barrels per day, oil prices could even climb to above $150, putting the risk of runaway global inflation on the table.

The Korea Herald specifically pointed out that the U.S. “selective blockade” and Iran’s transit restrictions together form a “dual blockade,” leaving 26 Korean oil tankers currently stranded in the Strait of Hormuz in a predicament when it comes to entering or leaving. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战