Next week's macro outlook: The Middle East situation plunges back into an uncertain black hole, and the U.S. stock market enters earnings season

ME News message, April 12 (UTC+8). This week’s dramatic shift in geopolitical sentiment caused sharp fluctuations in the energy and metals markets. For most of the week, the dominant logic was the easing of panic sentiment after the US and Iran reached a tentative ceasefire agreement. Crude oil became the biggest casualty under the cooling narrative. Gold also felt pressure, giving back after breaking through $4,850. The US Dollar Index fell below the 100 level this week, and US stocks rebounded strongly after the ceasefire news.

Below are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time):

Tuesday 20:30, US March PPI (YoY), US March PPI (MoM)
Wednesday 01:00, a fireside chat with Federal Reserve Board Member Harker, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, Richmond Fed President Barkin, and Boston Fed President Collins at the work forum of the Federal Reserve Board
Wednesday 00:45, Federal Reserve Board Member Bal delivers the opening remarks at the work forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Board
Wednesday 04:30, US API crude oil inventories for the week ending April 10
Wednesday 17:00, Eurozone February industrial production (MoM)
Thursday 01:40, Federal Reserve Board Member Bowman delivers remarks at the International Finance Forum
Thursday 02:00, the Fed releases the Beige Book on economic conditions
Thursday 17:00, Eurozone March CPI data
Thursday 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Thursday 21:15, US March industrial production (MoM)
Thursday TBA, the European Central Bank releases the minutes from the March 19 policy meeting
Thursday TBA, the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors (G20)

Compared with the past few weeks, next week’s data calendar looks relatively light. In addition, next week’s US stock market will officially enter the Q1 2026 earnings reporting season. Large banks such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley will report results first, followed by firms like BlackRock and Johnson & Johnson. Then, tech giants such as TSMC, ASML, and Netflix will release data one after another. (Source: PANews)