Opinion: Prediction markets serve as a "real-time radar" for geopolitical risks, with Iran's situation betting on leading Bitcoin volatility

ME News Report, April 6 (UTC+8), Sygnum Bank Chief Investment Officer Fabian Dori analyzed that during the escalation of the Iran conflict, the market is rapidly evolving into a “real-time radar” for traders monitoring macro risks, including platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which are rapidly re-pricing the probabilities of the U.S. escalating the conflict, showing a direct correlation with Bitcoin price movements. Prediction markets price “clear event outcomes” with real funds, providing more differentiated signals for the crypto market driven by regulated, geopolitical, and protocol upgrade “binary events.” Data shows that in March, prediction market trading volume reached approximately 191 million trades, a year-on-year increase of 2,838%, with the monthly nominal trading volume rising to about $23.9 billion. Some professional trading teams have incorporated prediction markets into their macro analysis frameworks, used alongside indicators such as funding rates, options structures, and capital flows, to develop trading strategies before events occur. (Source: ODAILY)