Oil prices surge wildly, oil and gas stocks defy the trend and strengthen, and under the stalemate of the ceasefire, the market returns to a defensive stance.

How does AI answer: How did Trump’s speech trigger the market’s defensive stance?

On April 2, the market saw choppy trading throughout the day. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.74%, the Shenzhen Component was down 1.6%, and the ChiNext Index was down 2.31%. Judging from sector performance, oil and gas stocks were active. Heshun Petroleum (603353.SH) hit the daily limit up within the first minute of trading at the open, and Bohui Shares (300839.SZ) hit the “20CM” limit up. By the midday close, Beiken Energy (002828.SZ), Blue Flame Holding (000968.SZ), and Compton (603798.SH) all hit the daily limit up. In the afternoon, China Oil Engineering (600339.SH) surged in a straight line within 1 minute to hit the daily limit. Multiple stocks, including Jereh Group (002353.SZ), Tongyuan Petroleum (300164.SZ), Shouhua Gas (300483.SZ), Zhongman Petroleum (603619.SH), Shandong Molong (002490.SZ), and Zhunyou Shares (002207.SZ), all closed up more than 5%.

The Hong Kong oil and gas sector also saw a surge. By the close, Shandong Molong (00568.HK) rose 16.37%, and Baijun Oil Services (02178.HK) rose 9.26%.

Before the U.S. market opened, ExxonMobil (XOM) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) rose more than 3%, reversing the weakness from the previous trading day.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on April 1, U.S. President Trump delivered a nationwide televised speech, claiming that the Iran conflict had achieved a “quick, decisive, overwhelming victory.” However, immediately after the roughly 20-minute speech ended, international crude oil prices rose at once, while multiple Asian stock indices fell. According to Trump, the U.S. will continue to launch fierce strikes against Iran in the next “two to three weeks,” and negotiations with Iran are also underway. Public opinion generally believes that Trump’s speech did not mention a clear timetable for ending the Iran conflict, nor did it ease American people’s concerns or global markets’ worries about energy supply.

Before this talk that sidestepped key issues and offered no new ideas, international oil prices had been trending downward. After the speech was released, oil prices surged sharply again. Both Brent crude and WTI crude futures jumped to around the high end above 105 U.S. dollars per barrel. International spot prices for gold and silver plunged, and global stock markets ended their two-day rebound.

As of the time of writing, the global benchmark Brent crude futures’ main contract was quoted at 108.72 U.S. dollars per barrel, up 7.47% for the day; the U.S. WTI crude futures’ main contract was at 108.28 U.S. dollars per barrel, up 8.15% for the day; London spot gold fell 2.73% to 4,628.530 U.S. dollars per ounce; COMEX gold futures fell 3.51% to 4,644.0 U.S. dollars per ounce; London spot silver fell 5.61% to 70.825 U.S. dollars per ounce; and COMEX silver futures fell 6.83% to 70.885 U.S. dollars per ounce.

Market participants believe that what Trump said in the speech was merely repeating recent posts and tweets, without providing additional certainty or clarity regarding a ceasefire timetable, and without proposing a path to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—precisely what investors were hoping for. As hopes for a quick, decisive resolution were shattered and the ceasefire timetable remained a mystery, the market returned to a defensive posture, especially with the weekend approaching.

According to CCTV News, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghai stated that Iran is prepared to respond to any form of attack, including a ground invasion. Baghai said Iran has received information from the U.S. via third parties, including Pakistan, but has not held direct negotiations with the U.S. He also said that the demands put forward by the U.S. are “excessive and unreasonable.”

Also, according to Xinhua News Agency citing Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, on April 2, a spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Hatem Anbiya Central Headquarters issued a statement that day, saying the war will continue until “the enemy surrenders and feels permanently regretful.” The U.S. and Israel need to prepare for more intense, wider-ranging, and more destructive strikes from Iran.

In a report dated April 2, the British Financial Times said that Gulf countries are considering building new oil pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.