Rate cut? The new Fed chair's bold words overnight

First, look at the fire in the Middle East!!

Yesterday, oil prices plummeted 10%, and everyone was shouting "rate cut is stable," but overnight, the most likely future Fed chair, Waller, directly poured cold water on everyone!
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How harsh are his words? He directly tied rate cuts to the Middle East war:

It's not that they won't cut rates, but only when the Strait of Hormuz is fully open and trade is completely restored, might they cut later this year.

But the market has seriously underestimated the risk of prolonged conflict! The longer oil prices stay high, the more likely it is to seep into all commodity prices.

By that time, even if employment collapses, the Fed can only keep interest rates locked at high levels, watching stagflation arrive helplessly.

This is not alarmist talk. Deutsche Bank has already adjusted its expectations, calling for "the Fed to hold steady this year"; the currency market pricing shows the probability of no rate cut by the end of the year has soared to 69%.

What's more ironic is that yesterday's so-called "full opening" of Iran is conditional—only on designated routes, with approval from the Revolutionary Guards, and the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports is still ongoing. The temporary ceasefire on April 22 will expire, and if talks break down, the strait could be closed again at any time.
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