لماذا وصلت أسعار النفط إلى أدنى مستوى في أسبوعين: صدمة العرض السعودية مقابل انهيار الطلب

Crude’s under siege. December WTI dropped 0.55% today, but the real story isn’t the daily chart—it’s the structural headwinds building underneath.

The Saudi Signal

Saudi Aramco just cut Arab Light crude prices by $1.20/barrel to hit an 11-month low for December Asian delivery. Translation: the kingdom is signaling that global demand is weakening. When OPEC’s flagship producer starts slashing prices, refiners read it as “inventory’s piling up.” This move crushed sentiment more than the actual price cut.

Demand vs. Supply: The Widening Gap

Here’s the crux: the IEA warned in October that 2026 could see a record 4.0 million bpd global oil surplus. OPEC+ tried to act fast—they announced a 137,000 bpd production increase for December, but then immediately hit the brakes. Why? Because they still have 1.2 million bpd of cuts left to unwind from early 2024, and the market’s already screaming oversupply.

OPEC’s October output climbed 50,000 bpd to 29.07 million bpd (highest since spring 2022), yet prices still can’t catch a bid.

The Geopolitical Wildcard

Ukraine’s been on a rampage. In just three months, they’ve targeted 28+ Russian refineries, gutting Moscow’s refining capacity by 13-20% and cutting seaborne fuel exports to just 1.88 million bpd—the lowest in 3.25 years. New US/EU sanctions are piling on top. This supply disruption is literally the only thing keeping oil from collapsing harder.

But Here’s the Plot Twist

US inventories are actually tight. Crude stocks are 5.3% below the 5-year seasonal average. Gasoline hit an 11-year low, and the crude crack spread just rallied to 1.5-year highs—refiners are hungry. Yet demand fears are still drowning out these bullish signals.

The Bottom Line

Oil’s caught between competing forces: structural oversupply ahead + immediate supply tightness from Russia sanctions + weakening Asian demand. Until OPEC+ commits harder to production discipline, expect more downside pressure. The 2-week low might just be round one.