#比特币趋势与价格分析 Looking at the $23.7 billion annual settlement on December 26, 2023, my mind drifts to the market sentiments before and after each settlement in recent years. Over the years, settlement day has ceased to be just a simple options clearing moment, and has become a mirror reflecting the deeper logic of the market.

I still remember the $11 billion settlement at the end of 2023, when the price was tightly held between $42,000 and $43,000, as if an invisible hand was choking the throat. After the settlement, that "cage" disappeared, and BTC, like a released beast, surged to $48,000 within days. I have seen too many cycles of suppression followed by release like this.

By March 2024, with a $15 billion settlement and halving expectations, the price fluctuated between $60,000 and $70,000. At that time, gamma hedging was incredibly strong, but once the settlement was completed, the rebound was powerful enough to push to new highs. I was thinking at the time, when will this logic fail?

Interestingly, the $17 billion settlement in June resulted in the market not soaring as expected, but instead maintaining a correction trend. This was a reminder to me: the post-settlement trend is not absolute; the market's fundamentals are the ultimate judge.

Now, returning to the end of the year, history is repeating itself. Liquidity is thin during the Christmas holiday, and the rise in precious metals diverted some funds, causing Bitcoin to be suppressed between $85,000 and $90,000. I have repeatedly pondered the significance of the $96,000 figure, the biggest pain point. What does the disappearance of the "cage" after settlement mean? Based on past patterns, it should lead to increased volatility and upward impulses. But I also see market fatigue — this time may not be as fierce as in March 2024.

Past successful cases tell me that settlements are just catalysts; the real determinants are macro environment and market sentiment. The regulatory and rate cut expectations at the beginning of 2025 indeed provide support, but vigilance must always be maintained. A sprint to $100,000 is an enticing story, but every peak in history has made people believe there would be no turning back.