Recent remarks by the Federal Reserve Chair have attracted considerable attention. He candidly stated that the investigations surrounding the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation project and Congressional hearings are essentially efforts to pressure them into accelerating interest rate cuts. This reflects how intense the conflict is between the current independence of monetary policy and political demands.

In simple terms, the U.S. government wants to cut interest rates, with a major backdrop—the midterm elections at the end of 2026. Currently, the Democrats have a 79% chance of winning the House of Representatives, a significant jump from 60% in October 2025. In comparison, the Republicans have a 65% chance of retaining the Senate, down from 75%. What does this change in numbers imply? The political landscape is clearly loosening.

At the government level, multiple warnings have been issued that if the Republicans lose the majority in both the House and Senate, policy implementation over the next two years will face substantial resistance, including regulations related to cryptocurrencies. From a probability perspective, the chance of impeachment before the end of the year is only 12%, so this statement seems more like a strategic move to rally allies.

For traders, this game is mainly a political show before the midterm elections. Although public opinion remains hot, the actual impact on the market is limited. The key is to focus on real economic data and policy implementation, rather than being swayed by political noise during election years.