The Dark Forest under Quantum Computers: A Survival Guide for Bitcoin Users, L1 Projects, and On-Chain

Author: on-chain Revelation

Introduction: The “Dark Forest” Crisis of Bitcoin

In the world of blockchain, each node is like a star in the universe, independent yet interconnected, collectively building a decentralized financial world. Bitcoin, as the pioneer of this network, relies on powerful cryptographic algorithms to ensure its security. However, this security system is not invulnerable. A technology from the future—quantum computers—is quietly rising. It is like the Trisolaran fleet in “The Three-Body Problem,” possessing the ability of “dimensionality reduction strike.” Once matured, it will launch a fatal attack on Bitcoin and the entire blockchain ecosystem.

So, what should we do if quantum computers crack Bitcoin in the not-so-distant future? Is there still a possibility of counterattack in this on-chain survival battle of the “dark forest”?

Chapter 1: Bitcoin will face a “dimensionality reduction attack” from quantum.

The most terrifying weapon in the novel “The Three-Body Problem” is not the laser cannon, but “dimensionality reduction strike”—a higher-dimensional civilization does not fight you in the same dimension, but directly compresses three-dimensional space into two dimensions. All your defenses, all your fortresses, instantly collapse into a piece of paper. The mathematics that Bitcoin relies on, “impossible,” becomes “very easy” in the face of quantum computing.

IBM Quantum System One located in Aichingen, Germany. Source: Wikipedia

1.1 Bitcoin's “technical barrier” vs. quantum computer's “droplet” weapon

Bitcoin: The Cryptographic Standard of the 1980s

The core security of Bitcoin relies on the ECDSA algorithm, a cryptographic standard first proposed in 1985. In this system, each user has a pair of keys: the private key is the user's “thoughts” and is known only to themselves; the public key is the public “identification” used to verify the legitimacy of transactions.

It is easy to generate a public key from a private key using a mathematical one-way function, but deriving a private key from a public key is almost impossible with traditional computing power. Since the Bitcoin network uses 256-bit keys, even the most powerful traditional computers would take longer than the age of the universe to brute force it. It is this mathematical “impossibility” that protects the security of the Bitcoin network.

Quantum Computers: A New “Water Droplet” Technology for Breaking Encryption

Quantum computers are a new type of computing device that is completely different from traditional computers. They use the properties of superposition, entanglement, and other aspects of quantum physics to perform calculations, potentially leading to exponential growth in theoretical computational power for certain problems.

The emergence of quantum computers has changed the game— theoretically, through Shor's algorithm, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer can derive a private key directly from a public key in a reasonable time. This is akin to the “water drop” detector of the Trisolarans, which can easily penetrate the most robust defenses of humanity. Its attack method has the following characteristics:

Concealment: Once an attacker obtains the private key, they can legally sign forged transactions, and the entire network will perceive this as normal operations of the asset owner. Just like the surveillance of Sophon in “The Three-Body Problem,” it is completely silent and unnoticed.

Selectively: The wallets that are most vulnerable to attacks are those whose public keys have already been exposed, especially addresses used in early Bitcoin transactions. Kapil Dhiman, the CEO of Quranium, warned: “Satoshi's coins will become easy targets for attacks. If these coins are moved, people's confidence in Bitcoin will completely collapse before the system crashes.”

“Steal now, decrypt later: Attackers can copy the public data on the blockchain right now and wait for quantum computing technology to mature before decrypting it. Even if the existing network upgrades and switches to more secure algorithms, old addresses, long-idle wallets, and certain smart contract models may become vulnerable.”

1.2 Trust Crisis and Timeline: Satoshi Nakamoto's over 1 million Bitcoins

The UK National Cyber Security Centre recommends that organizations establish a quantum-safe cryptography upgrade path by 2028 and complete the migration around 2035. For blockchain systems designed to last for decades, preparations must begin now.

Some early estimates suggest that the point at which quantum computers will truly come into play might be in 2030. This means that time is running out for the blockchain industry.

In this scenario of quantum computer attacks, the blockchain itself will continue to operate normally—blocks will continue to be mined, and the ledger remains intact, but the ownership of assets has quietly changed. This situation is more frightening than a technical failure because it can destroy people's trust in the entire system.

Once Satoshi's more than one million Bitcoins start to move, the market will fall into panic. Even if the blockchain remains technically secure, prices could plummet, triggering a chain reaction that affects traditional financial markets that have already heavily adopted cryptocurrency.

If Bitcoin cannot solve the quantum mechanics problem within the next year, gold will always outperform Bitcoin. In this regard, the founder of the quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Carpriole stated last month on X.

Part Two: Layer 1's “Wall Facers” Program

In “The Three-Body Problem,” there is a brilliant setting: when humanity discovers that an alien civilization is monitoring everything on Earth through “sophons,” all defense plans will be detected in advance. What to do? The United Nations proposed the “Wallfacer Plan”—selecting several “Wallfacers” and granting them the power to mobilize global resources to prepare for the impending invasion.

In the face of the dimensionality reduction impact of future quantum computing, the blockchain world similarly needs “wall-facers”. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) of the United States plays this role. From 2022 to 2024, NIST selected and initiated the standardization work for the first batch of post-quantum cryptographic algorithms. These new algorithms, like the interstellar weapons developed in “The Three-Body Problem”, do come with costs such as larger signature sizes and increased complexity of use, but they do provide a practical and feasible solution for the blockchain to resist quantum attacks.

Faced with the same threat, different L1 blockchains have chosen different survival strategies.

2.1 Strategy One: Multi-Path Exploration (Wall Facers Experiment)

The Wallfacers in “The Three-Body Problem” can experiment in multiple directions simultaneously, without needing to explain to anyone, as no one knows which path will succeed. Some mainstream blockchain projects have adopted a similar strategy: trying multiple technical solutions at the same time to find the optimal solution in practice.

Ethereum: Comprehensive Technical Exploration

The Ethereum research team is developing a post-quantum migration task list, which includes new transaction types, rollup experiments, and zero-knowledge-based wrappers. They are not betting on a single solution but are advancing in multiple directions simultaneously to see which path is the most feasible and efficient.

Source: pqcee.github.io

Solana: Optional Safe Haven

Solana has launched an optional quantum-resistant vault, specifically, the “Solana Winternitz Vault” solution achieves this by implementing a complex hash-based signature system that generates new keys with each transaction.

Source: @deanmlittle

Sui: Progressive Upgrade Path

The research team of Sui has released a dedicated quantum-safe upgrade path and proposed an upgrade path to avoid destructive hard forks in collaboration with academic partners. This is a progressive strategy aimed at minimizing the impact on existing users as much as possible.

Source: @kostascrypto

The core of this strategy is “options”: instead of forcing everyone to upgrade, it offers multiple choices for the market and users to decide for themselves.

2.2 Strategy Two: Transforming the Old World (Bunker Project)

The “Shelter Plan” in “The Three-Body Problem” is not about tearing down and rebuilding, but rather constructing shelters behind giant planets—allowing the old world to continue functioning while gradually establishing a new defense system. Some blockchain projects have adopted a similar strategy: adding a quantum security layer on top of the existing system, allowing for the coexistence of new and old systems, enabling users to migrate gradually.

Algorand: Adding defenses at key nodes

Algorand is a typical example of the application of post-quantum technology in production environments. In 2022, it introduced “State Proofs,” using the NIST standardized lattice-based signature scheme FALCON. These proofs verify the state of the Algorand ledger every few hundred blocks, providing quantum-safe validation services for other chains. Recently, Algorand also demonstrated complete post-quantum transactions on its mainnet, showcasing logic signatures based on Falcon.

Source: Algorand

Cardano: A long-term plan with dual-track parallelism

Although Cardano currently still uses Ed25519 signatures, its team views quantum readiness as a long-term differentiating advantage. Founder Charles Hoskinson outlined a plan that combines independent proof chains, Mithril certificates, and NIST-compliant post-quantum signatures.

Source: @IOHK_Charles

2.3 Strategy Three: Build a New World (Star Ring City)

In the final stages of “The Three-Body Problem,” humanity no longer attempts to defend Earth, but instead directly builds a brand new civilization in space—without historical burdens and compromises, designing for the new environment from the very first brick. Some new blockchain projects have chosen this path: building a completely quantum-resistant system from scratch.

Naoris Protocol: Mentioned in the proposal submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, focusing on post-quantum infrastructure.

Quranium: Uses the NIST-approved stateless hash-based digital signature algorithm (SPHINCS+), designed from the protocol level for the quantum era.

Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL): Launched in 2018, it is built on the hash-based XMSS signature and is one of the earliest quantum-resistant blockchains.

These projects do not need to consider backward compatibility, do not need to migrate old users, and do not need to struggle to balance performance and security. They establish colonies directly in the “new universe,” waiting for the arrival of the quantum age.

Part Three: The Dark Forest Law - Everyone Must Make a Choice

3.1 Strategies for Individual Users

Avoid long-term idleness: regularly check and update your wallet to avoid becoming the “preferred” target of quantum attacks.

Preparing for key upgrades: In the coming years, new account types, hybrid signature options, and wallet prompts are expected to encourage users to upgrade the keys for high-value assets.

Focus on crypto agility: Choose ecosystems that can add and rotate cryptographic primitives without performing destructive hard forks.

3.2 Investor Due Diligence

Roadmap Transparency: Does the project have a clearly documented post-quantum roadmap?

Practical implementation: Is there a prototype or actual functionality, or is it just marketing hype?

Time planning: Is the project already preparing for quantum threats in the 2030s?

Conclusion: Give time for on-chain evolution

In “The Three-Body Problem,” the “sword bearer” can decide the fate of humanity alone, but there is no such role in the blockchain world. Each project is exploring its own path; whose solution will be effective? No one knows. But this is precisely the resilience of decentralization—no single point of failure and no single answer.

The threat of quantum computing is not the end, but the beginning. Blockchain may not be able to preserve all of the past, but as long as the core principles remain—decentralization, censorship-resistance, and trustlessness—civilization will continue.

Give civilization to time, give on-chain evolution to the years—only the prepared civilization can enter the next dimension.