The Fed is changing leadership? This is happening faster than you think.

Jerome Powell’s term still has half a year left (until May 2026), but things are already moving ahead in Washington. Although Trump says he’ll announce the candidate “early next year,” those with a sharp market sense already know—the new chairman is basically locked in.

Let’s talk today about who will take on this hot potato, and what’s really going on behind the scenes.

# Ultimate Showdown: The Battle of Two Kevins

There are 5 names on the candidate list, but only two are real contenders—both named Kevin. Simply put, it’s a direct contest between the “president’s confidant” and the “technocrat.”

**First up: Kevin Hassett**

Currently, he’s the head of the White House National Economic Council. On prediction market Kalshi, his odds of winning once shot up to 80%—he’s the clear favorite.

Why is he so popular?

First, he has close ties with Trump. He helped craft the tax cut plan in Trump’s first term, and is the type of “do whatever the president says” executor. Trump loves this kind—obedient, and a strong supporter of low interest rates.

His policy stance? Definitely dovish. Low rates, easy policy—these are basically his tags.

For the crypto market, this is a signal: if he takes office, expectations for looser policy will soar, and the liquidity narrative may have more room to run.

**Now, the second contender** (although the original text doesn’t name him, based on the “two out of five” logic, it should also be an institutional technocrat).

This kind of personnel battle is really a contest over policy direction. What does a dovish leader mean? Less pressure on interest rates, and easier valuation logic for risk assets (including Bitcoin).

But don’t celebrate too soon—the Fed Chair isn’t a one-person game. Even if Hassett makes it, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) voters still need to agree. Real policy shifts depend on data and consensus.

# How should the market see this?

In the short term, leadership expectations themselves are a trading theme. The 80% odds are already partly priced in, but there will definitely be volatility before and after an official appointment.

In the long run, the key isn’t who sits in the chair, but the actual direction of monetary policy. A dovish chair can lower tightening expectations, but inflation, employment, and fiscal deficit constraints remain.

For the crypto community, this round of leadership change at least proves one thing: the macro narrative isn’t over. Every Fed pivot could trigger the next round of market moves.

As for gold tokenization? That’s a story for another day. We’ll discuss that next time.