Bencent memperingatkan: Penyidikan Federal Reserve memicu gejolak pasar, akankah Powell menolak menyerahkan kekuasaan karena hal ini?

The Federal Reserve office building renovation project budget increased from an initial $1.9 billion to nearly $2.5 billion, which was originally a routine government overrun, but now has become the latest trigger for fierce conflicts between U.S. President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Powell. On January 11, 2026, Powell confirmed that federal prosecutors had launched a criminal investigation against him, focusing on whether he made false statements about the project’s scale during his testimony before Congress last June.

The investigation is led by long-time Trump ally and head of the District of Columbia U.S. Attorney’s Office, Piro, and was approved as early as November last year. The chain reaction of this investigation is being transmitted through complex mechanisms to the global financial markets.

Peristiwa Meledak

Last Friday, Powell received a subpoena from a grand jury of the U.S. Department of Justice, threatening criminal charges related to his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June. In a video statement, he directly responded that these charges are merely “pretexts,” and the real reason for his investigation is that the Federal Reserve “did not follow the President’s wishes” in setting interest rates.

This unprecedented investigation not only marks an escalation in the long-standing conflict between Trump and Powell but also sends a clear warning signal to Powell and his potential successors.

Peringatan Bissent

Treasury Secretary Bissent intervened urgently, telling Trump that this investigation has “made a mess” and could adversely affect financial markets. His warning is not unfounded. As a former hedge fund manager, Bissent is highly sensitive to market volatility. More importantly, he currently also serves as Acting Director of the IRS, with a clear understanding of the legal and financial chain reactions that the investigation might trigger.

Notably, prior to the investigation’s initiation, there was no prior notification to the Treasury Department, White House senior officials, or major departments of the Department of Justice, making Bissent’s warning even more urgent.

Di Balik Investigasi

The core of this investigation involves the renovation projects of two main office buildings of the Federal Reserve. The project started in 2022 and is expected to be completed by 2027, with the budget significantly increased due to rising construction material costs. Trump has repeatedly publicly criticized the project for “cost overruns” and accused Powell of being “incompetent.” Powell, in his testimony before Congress last June, argued that the renovation was to meet “safety and modernization” requirements, denying allegations of luxury renovations.

Analysts believe that this investigation is partly “Trump’s revenge” and also aims to force Powell out of the Federal Reserve so that Trump can continue to install his own candidates.

Market Immediate Response

U.S. stocks experienced significant volatility on January 12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down nearly 500 points but ultimately closed up 0.17% at 49,590.2 points. This fluctuation reflects market concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve. Investors worry that if monetary policy is subjected to political coercion, the U.S.'s ability to control inflation will be severely compromised.

Safe-haven assets gained favor. Spot gold hit a historic high, while the dollar weakened relatively, reflecting global capital’s shaken confidence in U.S. assets.

Political Game and Power Transition

Senate Banking Committee member and Republican Senator Tillis has explicitly stated that he will oppose any Federal Reserve candidates nominated by Trump until the current chaos is resolved. This stance is crucial because Powell’s term as Chair will end in May this year. Recently, Trump revealed that he has already identified a successor for Powell.

Former Fed Chairs Bernanke, Greenspan, and Yellen jointly issued a statement criticizing this investigation as an “unprecedented attempt to weaken the independence of the Federal Reserve through prosecutorial attacks.”

Crypto Market Safe-Haven Logic

When traditional financial markets face uncertainty, cryptocurrencies are often viewed as safe-haven assets. Below are the latest price performances of several major cryptocurrencies on Gate and analysis of influencing factors:

Market analysts point out that the crisis of Fed independence may further accelerate the transfer of global funds from traditional financial systems to decentralized finance ecosystems.

The Trump administration has recently taken a series of administrative measures, including instructing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $2000 billion in mortgage bonds, and calling for the cap on credit card interest rates to be set at 10%. These measures are seen as attempts to bypass the Fed and directly intervene in interest rate levels.

Diversified Path Allocation Strategy

In the current market environment, traditional asset allocation strategies face challenges. As the global economy enters a “critical chaos” stage, correlations between assets are rising, and asset prices respond more collectively to policy changes.

Diversified pathways are gradually becoming the new direction for allocation. This means investors need to position themselves across different risk factors, policy changes, and market narratives, enabling their portfolios to remain stable across multiple possible market paths.

The erosion of Fed independence may further strengthen the value of cryptocurrencies as a non-traditional asset class. Compared to simply expanding asset ranges, path diversification focuses more on the potential trajectories of price changes.

Trump insists he is “completely unaware” of the investigation but also criticizes Powell’s performance at the Fed and his ability to oversee the building of the buildings. Powell’s attitude is clear: “I will continue to fulfill my responsibilities as assigned by the Senate.” The warning from Treasury Secretary Bissent has become a reality. Capital is seeking new safe havens worldwide; whether it’s gold at historic highs or surging cryptocurrency trading volumes, they tell the same story. Whether Powell will refuse to relinquish power depends on whether he can withstand unprecedented pressure and whether market trust in Fed independence is already irretrievable. But regardless of the outcome, the global financial landscape has quietly shifted in this event.