Independent Researcher: NVIDIA Could Become a $610 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme? Smart Money Has Already Left

According to BlockBeats news, on November 21, financial market independent researcher Shanaka Anslem Perera published an article stating that yesterday, an unprecedented upheaval occurred. Nvidia's stock price soared 5% after the earnings report, but then plummeted into negative territory within 18 hours. Wall Street's algorithms detected anomalies that humans failed to notice: there were serious contradictions in the reported data. The specific findings are as follows:

Nvidia's accounts payable surged by 89% year-on-year to $33.4 billion, with the payment cycle extending from 46 days to 53 days, while inventory chips skyrocketed by 32% to $19.8 billion. The $19.3 billion profit only converted into $14.5 billion in cash flow, with a conversion rate of 75%, far lower than the industry average of 95%, resulting in a gap of $4.8 billion that has reached crisis level.

AI ecosystem funding closed loop exposure: Nvidia injected $2 billion into xAI, xAI borrowed $12.5 billion to buy Nvidia chips; Microsoft invested $13 billion in OpenAI, OpenAI promised to spend $50 billion on Azure, Microsoft ordered another $100 billion from Nvidia; Oracle allocated $300 billion in cloud credits to OpenAI, and OpenAI purchased Nvidia chips for Oracle. The same amount of money is counted in revenue repeatedly, yet cash has never truly materialized.

Smart money has fled: Peter Thiel sold $100 million worth of Nvidia stock on November 9, SoftBank liquidated $5.8 billion in holdings on November 11, and Michael Burry purchased $140 put options on Nvidia for March 2026.

Bitcoin fell from $126,000 to $86,000, analysts warn that if Nvidia falls another 40%, it will trigger $23 billion in forced liquidations of Bitcoin, causing an avalanche in the crypto market.

The timeline is set: February 2026 financial report reveals bad debts, March credit rating downgrade, April first financial restatement. NVIDIA's fair value is $71, currently at $186, overvalued by 162%. The AI bubble countdown to a big dump in 90 days has begun.

Overall, Perera adopts a cautious attitude towards central bank intervention, geopolitical friction, and concentrated risks in technology. He advises investors to turn to assets driven by “thermodynamics and game theory” rather than nostalgic reliance on central banks.