#美国政府停运 At the beginning of 2018, I was living in a small cubicle in a village in Hangzhou, in a space of less than ten square meters, and it was as cold as an ice cellar in winter.

The account balance is only enough to eat instant noodles for a week, working in a milk tea shop during the day, and staring at the fluctuating market at midnight.

Seven years have passed, and I made my first pot of gold in this market—over twenty million lying in my wallet.

It is not based on any insider information, but rather on the understanding gained from four profound losses.

**The First Cut: After a Surge, There Must Be a Plunge**

During the craziest time of the bull market, a certain altcoin surged more than three times in twelve days, and I poured all my savings of over seventy thousand into it. Two days later, it started crashing, and within a week, I lost fifty thousand. It was then I understood: when a short-term increase exceeds 30%, and after a few days of sideways movement, it suddenly plummets with high volume, it basically means the main force is offloading. Now, when I encounter such a trend, I don't even look at it a second time.

**Second Cut: High-Level Consolidation is a Gentle Trap**

In 2019, I held several mainstream coins for almost two months during a sideways market, thinking it was a buildup before a breakout, and even added leverage to average down, but the result was a direct halving of value. Later, upon reviewing, I discovered a pattern: if the sideways period exceeds three weeks, trading volume continues to shrink, and the price deviates more than 20% from the moving average, this pattern is likely a precursor to distribution in 80-90% of cases. Now, once the system marks such signals, I will reduce my position without hesitation.

**Third Cut: Bottom Fishing Should Focus on Volume Rather Than Price**

During the epic crash in 2020, I tried to bottom fish $LINK but ended up getting stuck. What are the true characteristics of a bottom? After a period of low volume sideways movement, there will be a gentle increase in volume for three to five consecutive days with small bullish candles. Last year, when BTC exhibited this pattern around 25000, I entered heavily and sold at 42000, making a net profit of over five million.

**The Fourth Knife: Trading volume is a mirror to reveal the truth, and position management is the key to survival**

Surviving is the only way to qualify for talking about winning.

I am currently only doing half-position operations and never touch leverage. Last year during the $PEPE market surge, I waited until the trading volume increased to five times the usual before entering. Once the trend turned bad, I immediately took profits and exited. In the end, I achieved a twelvefold increase and avoided the subsequent crash.

This market never cares who is the smartest, only who can survive until the end.

Market conditions change constantly, but human nature remains the same. By adhering to discipline, one can go far.