Thoughts on the Future of the US Stock Market and Cryptocurrency Market Regarding $BTC

The rise of BTC is largely due to the resonance between its four-year halving cycle and the US debt issuance cycle every four years. From 2008 to 2024, four complete cycles of rises and falls have been experienced. Currently, we are in the beginning of the fifth cycle. At present, this cycle appears very stable and difficult to break.

Bitcoin, known as digital gold, will or has already become US stock market-like, meaning as long as there is no dollar liquidity crisis, Bitcoin will continue to rise without a top. All declines are technical corrections, including the four-year cycle bear markets, which can also be considered technical corrections. However, as a risk asset among risk assets, Bitcoin's corrections are somewhat larger.

In the future, if a dollar liquidity crisis occurs, it is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will expand its balance sheet and implement quantitative easing to release large amounts of liquidity. Bitcoin will experience a rapid 50% crash in a short period, then be pulled back by incremental liquidity and surge multiple times to new highs.

This cycle will continue forever.

Meanwhile, gold in BRICS countries, mainly in the Eastern giants, will be re-monetized.

I believe the entire cryptocurrency market will continue to grow to a trillion dollars, becoming a new market second only to or comparable with the traditional financial markets of stocks, futures, bonds, and foreign exchange.

In the next ten years, be a friend of time. We look forward to what lies ahead.