## Timeline of US-China Economic and Trade Conflicts: How 782 Days of Tariff Wars Shook the Global Markets

From July 2018 to August 2020, the United States and China engaged in the largest trade conflict in modern economic history. This over 780-day tariff war not only reshaped the economic and trade landscape of both countries but also had a profound impact on global stock markets and the cryptocurrency market.

### Outbreak of Tensions: Three Rounds of Tariff Escalation in 2018

The conflict began on July 6, 2018. The United States imposed a 25% tariff on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports, citing unfair trade practices. China immediately retaliated with tariffs of the same amount on American goods. Just seven weeks later, on August 23, the conflict escalated into a second round— the US expanded tariffs to $16 billion worth of Chinese goods, maintaining a 25% rate; China responded with equivalent tariffs.

A more threatening situation emerged on September 24. The US fully unleashed its firepower, expanding tariffs to $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. Despite the US’s strong stance, China retaliated with tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods, and trade barriers began to cause tangible damage to global supply chains.

However, on December 1, the G20 summit in Argentina provided a breather—both countries agreed to a 90-day ceasefire, leaving room for subsequent negotiations.

### Fluctuations and the Dawn of Agreements: The Ups and Downs of 2019

In early 2019, markets anticipated a possible easing of trade disputes, but on May 5, the US shattered this expectation. Washington decided to raise tariffs on the previously imposed $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25%, further intensifying the conflict.

The situation continued to worsen over the summer. On August 1, US leaders announced an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese imports, pushing the conflict to a new height. China responded on August 23 with tariffs on $75 billion worth of US goods, while the US continued to increase pressure.

A turning point finally arrived. On October 11, the announcement of a Phase One agreement restored market confidence, with both sides agreeing to suspend some tariff increases. As negotiations deepened, a formal Phase One deal was reached on December 13, marking the first substantive progress in this trade war.

### Confirmation of Reconciliation: The Signing of the 2020 Agreement

On January 15, 2020, the Phase One agreement was officially signed, covering key issues such as trade expansion, intellectual property protection, technology transfer regulations, and monetary policy. By August 25, both countries reaffirmed their commitment to implementing the agreement. This 782-day confrontation finally came to an end.

### Volatility in Global Markets

**Stock Market Turmoil and Rebound**

The S&P 500 index closed at 2,913 points when the trade war erupted (July 2018). As tariffs escalated, the index plummeted to 2,506 points in October 2018, a decline of 14%. Panic gripped Wall Street. But by October 2019, as negotiations made progress, the S&P 500 rebounded to a record high of 3,230 points, reflecting market hopes for a peaceful resolution. However, the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 in March 2020 disrupted markets again, with the index dropping to 2,584 points.

**Atypical Fluctuations in Cryptocurrency Assets**

Bitcoin was trading at $6,600 during the early stages of the trade war (July 2018). As US-China tariff tensions escalated, the asset experienced a significant correction in December 2018, falling to $3,400. Notably, from December 2018 to June 2019, not only did the trade war escalate, but the crypto market also faced its harshest “crypto winter,” with prolonged low prices under double pressure.

A turning point occurred in June 2019, when Bitcoin’s price surged back to $12,000. Despite ongoing trade tensions, the asset demonstrated an independent upward trajectory. During the COVID-19 market shock in March 2020, Bitcoin briefly fell to $5,000 but then quickly rebounded. By late 2020, the asset hit new all-time highs, indicating that even amid macroeconomic uncertainty, cryptocurrencies continued to attract safe-haven capital.

### Lessons and Outlook

This over-two-year trade conflict has offered a profound lesson to global markets. In terms of direct damage, the ongoing tariff battles resulted in hundreds of billions of dollars in additional taxes on goods, severely disrupting global supply chains and significantly increasing market uncertainty. Stock markets experienced double-digit declines, and investor confidence was repeatedly shaken.

But from another perspective, this conflict may have also prompted both sides to reconsider the future direction of economic and trade relations. The signing of the Phase One agreement shows that even in highly confrontational environments, dialogue and compromise remain possible. The gradual market recovery and the new highs in cryptocurrencies suggest that the global economic system still possesses resilience and self-healing capacity. The historical significance of this trade war lies not only in its short-term shocks but also in how it has reshaped perceptions of economic globalization and supply chain diversification.