The cryptocurrency market in 2026 has experienced weak fluctuations at the beginning of the year, with bulls and bears in a stalemate. Bitcoin has fallen over 30% from its peak of $126,000 on October 12 of last year, recently oscillating between $88,000 and $93,000. Last week, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day inflow of $287.4 million (the highest in nearly three months), driving the US spot Bitcoin ETF to a single-day inflow of $471.3 million. However, the rebound in funds lacks sustainability, and institutions remain cautious in their deployment. Since the end of the year, institutional funds have experienced phased outflows amid macro policy uncertainties, further suppressing market risk appetite. On the macro level, Federal Reserve policies remain the key influencing factor. Market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 vary significantly: the Trump administration hopes for a faster easing pace than Powell's original plan of "a single rate cut in 2026," and differing expectations continue to disturb the market. It should be noted that during the three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve from September to December 2025, Bitcoin declined by a total of 24%, temporarily invalidating the traditional "rate cuts benefit risk assets" logic. Going forward, focus should be on policy implementation and whether expectations align. $BTC