Bitcoin in 2026: Will a Major Collapse Really Happen?

Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe has publicly dismissed the “big bear market in 2026” scenario that many are concerned about. According to him, this forecast lacks support from actual data, and in fact, the market is progressing along a completely different trajectory than the general expectation.

Is the classic Bitcoin cycle outdated?

Van de Poppe points out that the four-year cycle model no longer applies to modern Bitcoin. Instead of following old rules, the market is shifting towards a new structure where institutional capital flows play a more decisive role.

Looking back at history, major corrections have indeed occurred: in 2014, Bitcoin dropped 30%; in 2018, it fell 74%; and in 2022, it declined 64%. This repetition creates a natural fear that 2026 will be another “bad year.” However, the analyst believes that the current cycle has developed along a different path, diverging from classical models and making old formulas unreliable for forecasting.

Divergence between gold and Bitcoin: What signals does it send?

A notable point is that gold has recently attracted a large influx of capital, surpassing historic all-time high prices, while Bitcoin remains relatively weak. Van de Poppe sees this as a sign of a systemic disruption.

Historically, similar phases often precede strong upward rallies in high-risk assets. The value of gold has increased by trillions of dollars in a short period, indicating a capital reallocation underway. Bitcoin has the potential to catch this trend as liquidity conditions shift positively.

Macroeconomic context: Falling interest rates, increasing liquidity

The global economic situation is creating factors that support risk assets. Unemployment is rising, bond yields continue to decline, and central banks are increasing the supply of M2 money to support the economy. In the US, a weakening labor market and government debt pressures are forcing interest rates to stay low.

In this environment, M2 money supply is expanding, creating a potential inflationary backdrop. Compared to the current M2 supply, Van de Poppe believes both Bitcoin and gold are not overvalued; on the contrary, they still have room to grow.

Technical indicator: RSI in oversold territory rarely seen

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s (RSI) (Relative Strength Index) has fallen into oversold territory, a phenomenon rarely seen in the entire chart history. Past instances of this often coincided with market bottoms and were followed by strong recoveries.

Forecast: Unexpected recovery rather than collapse

Contrary to the common expectation of an “inevitable crash” in 2026, Van de Poppe argues that current data points to a different scenario. The market seems closer to an unusual rebound rather than a deep downward trend at this moment.

The analyst does not definitively state whether 2026 will rise or fall, but current signs suggest more stability than a large-scale collapse. If Bitcoin can once again surpass $100,000, pessimistic investors may return, and the upward trend could accelerate.