Why do investors remain steadfast with Crypto when the market is in crisis?

In the context of the cryptocurrency market experiencing a volatile end to the year, top industry experts still maintain a positive outlook. This is not born out of wishful thinking, but based on deep analysis of the long-term trends in the industry.

Bitcoin and Ethereum: When historic lows are formed

Although gold has increased by 61% since the beginning of the year, and the S&P 500 index has risen nearly 20%, Bitcoin and Ethereum are still in a negative position with negative yields. However, looking back over ten years, the picture is completely different: if you bought Bitcoin in December 2016, the profit would be 112 times, while Ethereum would have yielded nearly 500 times.

These fluctuations are difficult to understand, but can be explained by the phenomenon of leverage reduction. About seven and a half weeks ago, after a similar liquidity shock, the crypto market began to show signs of recovery. Legendary market analysts had advised reducing Ethereum buy orders, but the situation has now changed significantly.

Last week, Ethereum trading volume doubled, from 50,000 ETH to nearly 100,000 ETH per week. This reflects confidence that Ethereum has found a bottom, and a recovery trend is about to begin.

The four-year Bitcoin cycle: The old rule will be broken

Historically, Bitcoin follows a cycle of about 3.91 years, accurately describing major peaks and troughs. However, this time, the main factors that usually regulate this cycle are no longer operating on the traditional rhythm.

The copper/gold ratio used to have a clear four-year rhythm that matched Bitcoin’s movements, but this time, there is no turning point yet. The US (ISM) business activity index has remained below 50 for three and a half years, unlike historical trends.

This raises the question: if core variables no longer follow the four-year cycle, why does Bitcoin still have to be bound by it? The answer is: Bitcoin will break this cycle. If Bitcoin hits a new high in January next year, the traditional four-year cycle will officially end.

2025: Tokenization reshaping the financial system

The asset tokenization movement is not just a trend, but a complete redefinition of the global financial system. Wall Street has realized that tokenizing just one currency can generate enormous revenue.

The world’s largest financial institutions are building blockchain-based products. Native exchanges have created extremely high informational value, with accuracy almost like a “crystal ball.” A newly established stablecoin tokenization company has become one of the ten most profitable “banks” worldwide, with just a single product.

International financial leaders call this “the most exciting financial innovation since the invention of double-entry bookkeeping.” The appearance of crypto technology leaders alongside top bank chairmen on the same stage is not coincidental, but a sign of fundamental change.

Ethereum: From technology to global financial infrastructure

Ethereum is experiencing its own “1971 moment.” Just as in 1971 when the US dollar detached from the gold standard, forcing Wall Street to create new financial products, Ethereum is now becoming the platform on which all asset types are restructured: stocks, bonds, real estate—all will be recreated on smart contracts.

Most real-world asset tokenizations (RWA) occur on Ethereum. Even early Bitcoin developers admit: “Ethereum has won the smart contract war.”

From a price perspective, Ethereum has fluctuated within a range for five years, but is now showing signs of a strong breakout. If Bitcoin reaches $250,000 and the ETH/BTC ratio returns to its eight-year average, Ethereum’s price will reach $12,000. If it returns to the 2021 peak, it will be $22,000. But if Ethereum truly becomes the global financial infrastructure with an ETH/BTC ratio of 0.25, the price would be around $62,000. Compared to the current level of about $3,000, Ethereum is clearly undervalued significantly.

Tokenization combined with Prediction Market: Unlocking endless opportunities

The real value of tokenization lies in its ability to combine with prediction markets. Most people only imagine tokenization as dividing an asset into tradable parts. But in reality, you can “decompose” the factors of any organization.

For example, you could tokenize different revenue streams of a large tech company and tokenize each separately. You could even tokenize the current value of projected profits in 2036 — if you believe strategic personnel changes will make that year particularly important.

All of this will provide traditional finance with new tools for price discovery and entirely new risk management methods. This is a massive structural unlock that Wall Street has just begun to realize.

Optimistic statistics about the future

Currently, only 4.4 million Bitcoin wallets hold over $10,000, while nearly 900 million accounts worldwide exceed this amount. If Bitcoin ownership approaches the scale of retirement accounts, the acceptance rate could increase by 200 times — still exponential growth.

According to a survey by a US-based bank with fund managers, 67% of fund managers have not yet allocated any Bitcoin. Wall Street plans to tokenize all asset types — including real estate and other financial assets, totaling nearly $10 trillion.

Digital Asset Treasuries: Bridging TradFi and DeFi

A properly defined Ethereum treasury company is essentially a crypto infrastructure company. Ethereum’s Proof-of-Stake mechanism not only secures the network but also generates profits — these profits will become the revenue source for the treasury company.

Treasury companies serve as bridges between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi). Stablecoin issuers will eventually want to stake Ethereum, as it will become the foundational currency layer of the entire system.

The most important criterion for evaluating a crypto treasury company is the liquidity of their stock trading. Leading treasury companies have already become some of the most traded stocks in the US — even surpassing traditional financial giants. Among about 80 crypto treasury-related companies, the top two account for 92% of total trading volume.

Long-term outlook and future strategy

One leading crypto treasury company has now become the largest Ethereum holder worldwide — notable, especially considering they had no ETH just a few months ago. Their staking solution, once fully deployed, is expected to yield about 2.9%, generating approximately $400 million in annual revenue.

All of this is based on a completely clean balance sheet: over $12 billion in Ethereum, some Bitcoin, a series of high-risk, high-reward investments, and abundant cash.

Future strategies include: building a strong validator network, making large investments in the community, moonshot R&D projects, and ultimately aiming to capture at least 5% of Ethereum’s infrastructure market share.

Conclusion: The best era of crypto is yet to come

If you become pessimistic due to the performance over the past ten years, or believe that the golden age of the crypto market is over, that would be a mistake. In an era led by intelligent agents, decentralized trust and security will become extremely important — and that is the core value blockchain can bring.

For me, the best era of the crypto industry is still ahead. Tokenization combined with prediction markets will bring the next wave of financial innovation. Ethereum will serve as the central infrastructure, and crypto treasury companies will play a key role in this wave of financialization. This is not blind optimism, but a conclusion based on data analysis, market history, and fundamental trends in global finance.