XRP Technical Pattern at a Critical Moment: Can the ETF's Inclusion of Over 80 Million Tokens Trigger a Rally?

XRP (Ripple) has shown strong momentum this week, rebounding from a weekly low of $1.90 to around $2.20. The current circulating market cap has reached $125.77 billion, continuing to solidify its position in the market. However, the technical outlook remains at a critical juncture; whether the bullish flag pattern breaks or not will determine the subsequent trend.

ETF Adoption Surpasses Expectations, Capital Inflow Becomes a Key Variable

The recently launched XRP spot ETF demonstrated strong absorption capacity on its first day. According to XRP Insights data, nearly 80 million tokens were absorbed in a single day, pushing the total assets under management (AUM) to $778 million. This achievement has already surpassed the initial performance of Solana’s recent ETF debut.

Grayscale’s GXRP and Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ funds, launched on November 24, absorbed $67.4 million and $62.6 million respectively on their first day, with total XRP ETF assets surpassing $628 million. Notably, this wave of capital inflow occurred amid a broader environment of capital outflows from Bitcoin, indicating renewed market interest in XRP.

Among the four active XRP ETFs, Canary’s XRPC leads the market with a cumulative net inflow of $331 million on Nasdaq, while Bitwise’s XRP ETF has reached $168 million. These ongoing capital inflows will directly exert structural pressure on circulating supply, potentially serving as a catalyst for price support.

Structural Advantages and Ongoing Challenges

While the initial enthusiasm for ETF absorption is impressive, the long-term effects remain to be seen. XRP supporter Chad Steingraber pointed out that each share represents 10 to 20 XRP, which is significant for share price. Continuous net capital inflows could trigger FOMO-driven trading surges, gradually turning funds into “market movers.”

New fund products are still expanding. 21Shares’ TOXR is expected to list on Cboe BZX on November 29, having received S-1 and Form 8-A approvals. With a fee of 0.50%, it aims to raise $500,000 in seed capital, further increasing the accessibility of physical XRP in the US.

Technical Outlook: Can the Bullish Flag Pattern Break Through?

Currently, XRP is forming a bullish flag pattern on the four-hour chart, but whether it can successfully break out remains a key determinant of future movement. A successful break above the $2.20 resistance could target the $2.35–2.45 seller fair value gap (FVG), while crossing the liquidity levels at $2.30 and $2.35.

If it fails to sustain above $2.20, the risk shifts to the buyer fair value gap (FVG) between $2.10 and $2.00, an area of significant liquidity concentration. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, indicating short-term buying strength, but the overall trend is still downward. XRP remains below the 50, 100, and 200-period exponential moving averages (EMA) on the four-hour chart, maintaining a bearish structure.

In the short term, market direction for XRP remains uncertain. The key factors will be whether ETF capital inflows evolve into sustained demand and whether technical resistance levels can be broken.