Willy Woo: Strength In Bitcoin Through February, Liquidity Trends Signal Caution For 2026

In Brief

Willy Woo’s analysis indicates cautious near-term optimism for Bitcoin driven by improving flows and returning liquidity, while warning that weakening long-term liquidity trends continue to cloud the outlook for 2026.

Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo published a market assessment stating that expectations are constructive for BTC from late January through February, while the outlook for 2026 remains negative

The analyst described this view as being derived from data analysis and noted that it is held with caution. Internal tracking models of investor capital movement identified a market low on 24th December, after which conditions have shown steady improvement

Historically, similar flow patterns tend to influence pricing with a delay of roughly two to three weeks, and current price behavior is considered consistent with that pattern, though short-term technical indicators suggest temporary overbought conditions are limiting immediate upside

Additional supportive signals were observed in derivatives markets, where liquidity tied to futures activity has begun to return following a prolonged contraction, a development comparable to mid-2021 that preceded a secondary market peak during the previous cycle

From a technical perspective, the price region between 98,000 and 100,000 is identified as a critical resistance area, with subsequent performance dependent on the market’s ability to overcome and stabilize above that zone and on how price responds near previous all-time-high levels

Despite near-term optimism, the longer-term outlook for 2026 remains cautious, as broader liquidity trends have been weakening relative to price momentum since January 2025, placing the market in a phase where upward movement appears increasingly unsupported by underlying capital inflows.

Stronger Spot Liquidity Could Shift BTC Outlook, While Bear Market Signals Remain Absent

According to the report, the outlook would shift if a substantial increase in spot market liquidity, representing longer-duration capital, were to emerge in the coming months and reverse the prevailing weakening trend

It was also noted that a confirmed bear market has not yet materialized, as such a phase would typically be reflected by accelerating capital outflows from BTC, a development that generally appears with a delay following a major cycle peak.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) opened 2026 with redemptions, recording a total outflow of $681 million over the first complete trading week of the year

Data from SoSoValue indicate that these Bitcoin ETFs registered net withdrawals of $681 million during the last week. In contrast, spot Ethereum ETFs experienced a net reduction of $68.57 million from January 5th through January 9th

In the same period, spot ETFs for Solana and XRP experienced net inflows, with Solana-linked funds drawing $41.08 million and XRP-linked funds attracting $38.07 million

Market observers attribute the broader outflows primarily to macroeconomic uncertainty, noting that changing expectations for monetary policy and elevated global risk perceptions have dampened positioning. With interest rate cuts in the first quarter appearing less probable and geopolitical tensions increasing, broader financial conditions have shifted toward risk aversion, prompting traders to await clearer positive developments and reducing risk appetite across markets, including cryptocurrencies

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading around $92,030, reflecting a gain of more than 1.52% over the prior 24 hours, with an intraday low of $90,239 and a high of $92,337, according to CoinMarketCap data.