Market-Moving Economic Data Could Trigger Significant Crypto Swings – Here's What To Watch

The next 24 hours will be critical for risk assets as two major US economic announcements hit back-to-back. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility across both traditional markets and cryptocurrency, as each outcome presents its own set of challenges.

The Unemployment Report Timeline

At 8:30 AM ET, the US jobs and unemployment data will be released. The market is currently pricing in an unemployment rate of 4.5%. Here’s where the tension lies: neither outcome looks particularly favorable for crypto bulls.

If unemployment comes in weaker than expected, recession fears could resurface immediately. Weakening labor data typically triggers risk-off sentiment, sending equities lower and dragging crypto along with them. This scenario creates immediate selling pressure as investors rush to safer assets.

Conversely, if the report shows stronger employment numbers, it signals the Fed may maintain higher interest rates for longer. This delays expectations for rate cuts that crypto markets have been betting on. Tighter monetary policy typically pressures speculative assets, which includes most cryptocurrencies.

The Supreme Court Tariff Decision

Around 10:00 AM ET—roughly 1.5 hours after the jobs report—the Supreme Court is expected to rule on Trump-era tariff policies. This is where things could get truly volatile.

If the court strikes down key tariff policies, potential refunds exceeding $600 billion could flood into the system. Market uncertainty alone could trigger sharp moves, and the influx of capital could destabilize price discovery across multiple asset classes. The psychological impact of such a ruling could be more damaging than the actual capital flow.

What This Means for Your Positions

The no-win setup here is straightforward: weak data triggers recession fears and immediate selling, while strong data means delayed rate relief and slower growth prospects. Both paths lead to heightened market stress.

For those watching closely, assets like CLO, LYN, and FXS have shown sensitivity to macro volatility spikes. These tokens could experience sharp moves in either direction depending on how markets digest these announcements.

The key is preparation: tighten your stop-losses, reduce position sizes if you’re carrying heavy exposure, and avoid adding to positions until these events clear. Market volatility often creates opportunity, but only if you live to trade the next day.