Recently, two news items about Ripple have been put together, and you can really see some insights.

One side is Ripple's valuation soaring to $40 billion with smooth financing; the other side is XRP's price remaining basically stagnant. This contrast is quite striking—why is this happening?

Many people have actually misunderstood a basic logic. Ripple is a private payment company, while XRP is a public utility token. These two things are not the same at all. To give an analogy—you buy Tencent logo commemorative coins wildly, thinking you can share in their trillion-dollar market cap? That sounds unreliable.

How do the data look? On Binance, over 3 million XRP were bought in the short term, with trading volume soaring to 205%. At first glance, it seems "buyers are very firm." But looking from another angle—could this be big players using a "hype illusion" to offload? Institutions might be leveraging Ripple's valuation news to create momentum, attracting retail investors to rush in, while they have already placed sell orders around $2.06. The trading volume surging doesn't necessarily mean accumulation; it often signals distribution.

The deeper issue here is: if institutions use the XRP ledger for payment clearing, they don't need to hold XRP tokens long-term. Think about what this implies—even if Ripple really wins global banking business, XRP might just be a "pass-through tool," not a "store of value." You're not hoarding gold; it's like holding a bunch of "toll booth passes," and the toll stations can switch to other tickets at any time.

There's also a question worth pondering: if professional institutions don't need to hold XRP long-term, who are the real long-term bagholders? Until you figure this out, you should be cautious.

The most frightening thing in a bull market isn't the lack of dreams, but that the dreams you're chasing might not be meant for you. Instead of being fooled by news like "Exchange Net Outflows," ask yourself a few straightforward questions:

**First**, don't tie a company's success too tightly to its token price—you are buying a token, not equity. They are two different things.

**Second**, be wary of news about surging trading volume—this could be the main players using emotion to offload.

**Third**, if institutions don't need to hold this token long-term, who is left to be the true long-term bagholder? Think this through carefully before deciding whether to continue holding.

Some projects seem to have strong companies behind them, but if their tokens refuse to rise, sometimes the capital logic behind it is more worth analyzing than the price movements themselves.