The recent remarks by New York Fed President Williams have reshaped the market's understanding of the economic trajectory for next year. He believes that the U.S. economy will remain resilient in 2026, but more importantly, signals that there is no need for rate cuts in the short term.

From a monetary policy perspective, the Federal Reserve has shifted its stance from "mild tightening" to "approaching neutral." Williams explicitly stated that the current policy framework is "favorable," enough to support a stable labor market while creating room for inflation to return to the 2% target.

However, there is a noteworthy change—over the past few months, the labor market has been cooling, and employment risks are rising; in contrast, inflationary pressures are easing. This dislocation determines the Fed's room for future choices.

What are the specific numbers? Williams expects GDP growth to be in the range of 2.5%-2.75%, neither too fast nor too slow. Regarding the unemployment rate, it is likely to stabilize this year before gradually declining. Inflation is even more interesting—expected to peak in the first half of the year, with a peak between 2.75%-3%, then the annual average will return to 2.5%, and by 2027, it will truly approach the 2% target.

What does this mean for crypto market participants? The stability and gradual pace of the Fed's policy directly influence liquidity expectations for risk assets. The mild growth outlook and easing inflation pressures give the market a relatively clear policy floor—at least in the short term, there will be no aggressive tightening.