#机构与散户持仓行为 After looking at this data analysis from CryptoQuant, that familiar feeling came back. This is the old script I’ve seen repeatedly in the market over the years: when Bitcoin is pushed up, retail investors rush in en masse to buy at high prices, while whales quietly sell off; when the price drops back, retail investors panic and rush to buy the dip, inadvertently giving institutions low-cost chips.

Honestly, the most heartbreaking thing isn’t the pattern itself, but the fact that so many people still fall into it despite knowing the rules of the game. Every time, they think "this time is different," only to get cut deep. I’ve also fallen for this — back then, I hadn’t yet understood the holding logic of retail investors and whales. I’d see the price rise and buy in, see it fall and cut losses. After a few rounds, the biggest losses weren’t from a bear market, but from being killed by my own FOMO and panic.

Looking back now, the key is to learn how to recognize these patterns and not be fooled by the surface of price fluctuations. Currently, we are in a phase of price decline and whale accumulation. At this time, retail investors should ask themselves: Why are whales buying here? Instead of being driven by panic. Those who survive long on-chain rely on being a few seconds more calm than others.