#比特币价格走势 Seeing this statement, I have to calmly pour some cold water. Steady growth over ten years with low volatility returns—sounds great, but this is precisely the narrative that most easily confuses retail investors.

Do you remember the days when I was brainwashed by the "four-year cycle"? Patterns are often the most deceptive. Hougan said retail investors tend to exit early due to expectations of the cycle, and he's right, but what he didn't say is—because this "pattern recognition" is widespread, whales and institutions have long been exploiting it to harvest. You think you're following the cycle, but in reality, the cycle has already been priced in.

The immediate drop after the $125,100 high is no coincidence. When everyone is talking about the "2026 bull year," the real risk has already been lurking. I've seen too many old hands get chopped up repeatedly because they believed in a certain institution's "long-term plan," only to be caught in the volatility.

A steady return sounds attractive, but don't forget— in the crypto market, your opponents are institutions and whales, who are always guiding retail investors' expectations step by step. Instead of hoping for a steady rise over ten years, ask yourself: how many "ups and downs" can I endure in these ten years? Can I survive each fluctuation?

The true defensive approach has never been chasing a prophecy, but always being vigilant against the stories that sound most reasonable.