2026年开局，贵金属市场火力十足。黄金刚刚突破每盎司4600美元大关，白银也在往85美元靠近。眼下摆在投资者面前的问题很直白：今年是不是又要像去年一样，一路创新高？还是这波涨势转眼就消散？

从技术面看，贵金属上行的势头依然强劲。只要黄金和白银保持"更高高点、更高低点"的格局，就没必要去纠结什么时候是顶。我们对2026年黄金的看法不至于超级乐观，但这不代表应该做空。趋势向上的时候逆向操作，通常赚不了钱。

**Federal Reserve turmoil ignites safe-haven demand**

The catalyst pushing up precious metals was unexpected: federal prosecutors launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Once this news broke, the market immediately started worrying whether the Fed’s independence might be compromised. Investors responded quickly, selling off large amounts of U.S. assets and shifting into traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver. Gold briefly broke through $4600, though it later retreated, but the trend of precious metals and the dollar weakening together remains clear.

Powell stated that the investigation stemmed from the Fed’s refusal to align interest rate policies with White House preferences. This statement instead reinforced market expectations that the Fed will maintain independence. The latest surge in precious metals, along with the dollar’s sharp decline, all occurred last Friday after the U.S. employment data was released — a report that lacked standout points but temporarily supported the dollar’s strength.

**Short-term volatility possible, focus shifts to data**

If concerns over Fed independence quickly fade and the dollar stabilizes, gold may face short-term pressure. However, a reasonable expectation is that Powell will complete his term, and monetary policy will continue to be dictated by economic data rather than political factors. Following this logic, market focus will shift back to macroeconomic data. This week’s consumer price index and retail sales reports will become the new focal points.