This year's market phenomenon is quite strange—Bitcoin repeatedly hits new highs, but the profit-taking effect is far less than that of stocks and gold. Beneath the seemingly prosperous surface, the capital structure is undergoing intense differentiation.

Onshore spot buying continues unabated, while the offshore market is selling into rallies after replenishing inventories. Even more absurd is that offshore leverage keeps rising, while institutional investors' CME positions are actually decreasing—this inverse allocation really explains the issue. Options data is even more revealing, with a clear divergence between volatility and price, indicating that market participants' sentiments are not aligned.

Although ETFs and digital asset funds have grown rapidly in size, the majority are passive funds, suggesting retail enthusiasm is waning. Exchanges are also quietly adjusting their strategies, shifting from simple trade matching to retaining users and expanding multi-asset businesses.

Miners, under ongoing pressure from AI chip investment costs, continue to sell Bitcoin, and early whales along with several large fraud cases have further worsened the situation. Given this, there are indeed doubts about whether the four-year halving cycle can continue to drive the market. Bitcoin is evolving from a purely trading asset into a financial product, and the key moving forward is—how to truly convert compliance and the legitimacy of the ETF era into on-chain utility and real returns.