The U.S. Energy Information Administration just updated its outlook for domestic crude output. For 2026, EIA now projects production at 13.59 million barrels per day (bpd)—a modest upward revision from the previous estimate of 13.53 million bpd. However, the picture shifts noticeably beyond that year. The agency forecasts 2027 output sliding to 13.25 million bpd, signaling a potential plateau and eventual decline in American production capacity.

This trajectory matters for broader markets. Softening domestic oil supply could reshape global energy dynamics and influence commodities prices, which ripple through macro conditions and risk appetite across financial markets. Lower energy supply pressures often correlate with tighter monetary conditions or inflation concerns—factors that historically shape capital flows into and out of crypto and digital assets.