Can the shift in crypto policy break the four-year cycle of Bitcoin?

Question

【Crypto World】The US cryptocurrency policy environment is clearly improving. Recently, the US stock market has been continuously rising, and the crypto market has also become more active, closely related to the policy shift. Industry insiders point out that this policy favorable trend may be breaking the long-standing four-year cycle pattern followed by Bitcoin.

The traditional view holds that Bitcoin’s price movements are closely related to the halving cycle of mining rewards, forming a predictable four-year volatility pattern. However, if macroeconomic conditions, policy support, and other external factors undergo significant changes, this pattern could be rewritten. The current strong performance of US stocks and the advancement of crypto-friendly policies could become new variables that break the old cycle.

Market participants need to adjust their thinking—relying solely on historical cycles to judge future trends is no longer sufficient. The weight of new factors such as policy developments, macroeconomic conditions, and institutional capital flows is increasing.

LayerZeroHero · Accepted Answer

It has proven that the four-year cycle theory should have been retested long ago. Relying solely on the halving cycle for predictions is indeed too naive.

LiquidityHunter · Answer

Four-year cycle? Wake up, everyone. This time is really different; the policy trend has changed, and the game rules are about to change.

Just dismissing historical cycles because of friendly policies? I find that hard to believe. History will repeat itself; it's only a matter of time.

Wait, are institutional funds really flowing in, or are they just talking? It depends on how long the US stock market can keep flying.

Breaking the cycle? Well... I still believe in the halving. That thing is much more reliable than policies.

Sounds good, but ultimately it depends on who is taking over the position.

LiquidityWizard · Answer

The policy dividends are here, so how can we still believe in a four-year cycle? It's all institutions slapping us retail investors in the face.

HappyToBeDumped · Answer

Four-year cycle? Laughing out loud, now it's a policy cycle.

The historical pattern has been broken again, who still dares to go all-in?

When US stocks rise, cryptocurrencies rise too. We've seen this routine so many times...

As soon as the policy shifts, someone will start saying "the pattern has been broken." Didn't they say the same thing before?

Institutional funds are the real boss, retail investors are just jumping along.

The four-year cycle is fake; the Federal Reserve is the real one.

Wait, isn't this still a cycle? Just called it a "policy cycle" now, haha.

How can you make money without relying on historical cycles? Just guess blindly.

MemeCurator · Answer

Is the four-year cycle about to be broken again? A new story every year.

Can the shift in crypto policy break the four-year cycle of Bitcoin?

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