Recent political struggles surrounding the Federal Reserve chairmanship are reshaping market expectations in unexpected ways. Judicial investigations, originally intended to exert pressure, have instead disrupted established plans.

Data speaks— the probability of Powell stepping down in May has dropped from 74% to 45%. The market’s previously confident end-of-year resignation timetable is now wavering. Behind this shift reflects the complex power struggle within the Federal Reserve leadership.

Originally seen as a "hawkish rising star," Waller’s support has surpassed others, causing the White House’s personnel adjustment plans to spiral out of control. Ironically, pressure on Powell has not diminished his position; instead, it may allow him to continue steering as a board member until 2028—becoming a more covert and harder-to-challenge form of power.

This has significant implications for the crypto market. As a symbol of the Fed’s independence, Powell’s long tenure suggests that the direction of monetary policy will be less influenced by external factors. The market’s previous optimism about rate cut cycles may need to be reassessed.

The confrontation between political intervention and the central bank’s ironclad stance has already shown signs of victory— the system has won. And this outcome will directly impact the global liquidity landscape and asset pricing logic in the coming years.