#交易平台业务 The logic of the crypto market in 2025 has been completely rewritten. After reading this Arkstream analysis, several key signals are particularly worth noting.

First, the multi-channel influx of capital is a decisive change. Previously, our discussions on market trends mainly focused on on-chain narratives and self-reinforcing cycles. Now, four channels—ETF net inflows, stablecoin base, corporate treasury allocations, and public market IPOs—are operating in parallel. Data shows that within the year, stablecoin supply has expanded from 205 billion to 300 billion USD, and IBIT net inflows reached 25.4 billion USD. The underlying logic is not sentiment but observable changes in capital structure.

Second, the revival of IPO windows essentially opens up the traditional financial chain of "auditable, comparable, and exit-able" assets. Nine crypto companies raised a total of 7.74 billion USD; Circle's valuation soared from 6.45 billion to nearly 40 billion. But more importantly, infrastructure components like stablecoins, clearing, and custody are now being priced by institutions based on cash flow and compliance moats for the first time. This shifts the entire industry’s financing logic—from "storytelling finance" to "delivering verifiable business metrics."

The structural upgrade of on-chain derivatives and prediction markets also reinforces this shift. Perpetual contracts traded approximately 1.081 trillion USD over the past 30 days, with Hyperliquid, Aster, and Lighter forming the top three competitors. The sector has shifted from subsidized volume competition to depth and risk control pricing. The prediction market’s annual volume reached 44 billion USD, with monthly trading jumping from 100 million to 13 billion USD. These fluctuations are not noise but a direct reflection of the coupling degree between macro variables and the crypto market.

Stress testing will become even more critical in 2026. The layering of stablecoins (cash layer vs. efficiency tools), the chain of leverage unwinding, and whether post-IPO projects can continue issuing new tokens are the real indicators of whether the market can sustain this new structure. In the short term, capital conditions look favorable, but medium-term resilience depends on how these infrastructures perform under extreme scenarios.