Bitcoin and Ethereum whether they can surge again depends crucially on the political and economic rhythm in the coming weeks.

Recently, the market has been turbulent. Trump hinted that he might not choose the "dovish" candidate expected by the market to lead the Federal Reserve, directly shattering investors' hopes for rate cuts. At the beginning of the week, there was a large bullish candle, followed by sideways consolidation at higher levels midweek, and profit-taking by bulls over the weekend. This week closed with a moderate positive candle. From a weekly perspective, a consensus has formed—the current situation depends on next week's speech by Trump and the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs. PCE data and the European Central Bank meeting are also worth watching.

From a technical standpoint, the situation is a bit delicate. Bitcoin's daily chart has closed four consecutive down days, with MACD volume gradually shrinking, and the fast and slow lines showing signs of a death cross at high levels. Although confirmation of the final pattern requires more time, the overall signals point in one direction—short-term correction pressure is accumulating.

How to interpret this specifically? Currently, Bitcoin needs to focus on short-term resistance around 96,000. If a smaller timeframe effectively breaks below 94,200, then watch whether the bottom range of 93,600-93,000 can become a true turning point. The critical defense zone is between 92,000 and 91,600.

Ethereum's trend is basically synchronized with Bitcoin. On the technical side, the 3330-3350 zone is a bearish pressure area. During a decline, watch the 3260-3200 level; if it breaks below 3200, a rebound to the 3350-3380 zone may occur. However, market conditions are constantly changing, so real-time trading should be flexible based on actual positions.

The current market logic is quite clear: policy uncertainties are weighing down market sentiment, and technical weakness also reflects this. Traders already holding positions can continue to follow steadily, while those still observing might wait a bit longer to see if next week's situation becomes clearer.