What exactly is the prediction market playing at?

Many people think it's about predicting the truth of events, but in reality, the core of market participants' play is capital game theory. Whoever can more accurately grasp the flow of large funds will profit from this wave of market trends.

Look at the high-frequency trading accounts on those top prediction platforms—it's clear they are not pursuing absolute prediction accuracy, but are capturing the turning points of market sentiment. In short-term volatile markets, capital weighting has a greater influence on price movement than the events themselves.

From a different perspective, whether it's a 15-minute rapid fluctuation or long-term major event predictions, the essence points to the same phenomenon: market liquidity and participant psychological expectations are often reflected before objective truths. This is the true nature of prediction markets.