The most critical issue currently facing Bitcoin may lie with those investors who entered the market earliest. According to on-chain data analysis, long-term holders who have held coins for 6 to 12 months have an average cost basis of around $101,000. This level represents a hurdle for Bitcoin to reach new highs.

Even more noteworthy are the investors who have held longer — the group holding for 12 to 18 months, with a cost basis of approximately $81,700. This price level is significant; once Bitcoin retraces to this point, many long-term holders are likely to choose to hold firm, as it reflects their true average purchase price. Investors who entered near the January 2025 peak are still holding on at this moment.

Looking higher, the $114,650 level is also not to be ignored. This price corresponds to the cost basis of short-term holders who have held coins for 3 to 6 months. Many of them entered at high levels, and if the price moves back into this range, psychological pressure will be intense — some may choose to exit near the breakeven point, causing some selling pressure.