The Beginning of January May Bring Short-Term Revival for Altcoins – Bitcoin Dominance at a Crossroads

The altcoin market situation remains challenging. While Bitcoin maintains a strong position with a market share above 56%, most alternative tokens are still waiting for their moment. Analysts predict a short-term rebound at the beginning of January – but will this be a genuine altseason revival or just a blinking on the market map?

Current Market Status – Where Is the Money?

Bitcoin maintains dominance at around 59%, and the Altcoin Season Index hovers around 37 points. This is a clear signal: institutional capital strongly favors the largest cryptocurrency. Meanwhile, nearly 90% of the top altcoins are trading well below their previous peak valuations.

The Fear and Greed Index is around 28 points – the market is clearly in fear territory. Investors are cautious about risk, and limited liquidity intensifies pressure on alternative projects. This combination of factors creates a tough environment for a broad altcoin rally.

Technical Signals Indicate a Possibility of Short-term Growth

Bitcoin dominance charts show potential weaknesses. Analysts observe formations that historically preceded declines in dominance and gave altcoins a chance to gain – though usually temporarily.

Market observations suggest that early January (particularly the period from January 5–12) could be significant. Bitcoin is expected to test resistance levels between $89,000 and $96,000. If these technical conditions are confirmed and Bitcoin’s price rises while its dominance falls, altcoins may temporarily gain popularity.

However, the lack of clear volume confirmation remains a weak point. Any potential breakout could fail if not supported by real capital inflow.

FAQ – Answers to Important Questions

Which altcoins will rise if a mini altseason occurs?
Initially, capital rotates into well-known projects with high liquidity. Smaller tokens remain neglected. Traders should focus on selection rather than broad exposure.

What does a 28-point score on the Fear & Greed Index mean?
It indicates fear. Investors are cautious, which can both limit gains and open opportunities for diversified strategies.

Will this be a real altseason?
Little suggests so. A mini altseason at the beginning of January is more likely a short-term anomaly than the start of a long-term upward trend.

Key Factor: Market Liquidity

Macroeconomic realities are not favorable for altcoins. Since 2022, the Fed has tightened monetary policy and reduced its balance sheet. This strategy has limited overall liquidity in markets – both traditional and crypto.

A breakthrough may only come when macroeconomic conditions ease. Potential rate cuts and a return to more accommodative monetary policy in the second half of 2026 could lay the groundwork for a genuine altcoin revival.

For now, however, the market favors patience. Even if Bitcoin’s dominance temporarily drops, it’s unlikely to trigger a broad rally. Gains will be selective, not spread across the entire altcoin market.

Summary: Wait for Better Conditions

Early January 2026 may bring a short-term rebound of selected altcoins – that’s the technical signal. However, a real, sustained altseason will depend on a fundamental change in macroeconomic conditions and increased liquidity.

Currently, with Bitcoin dominating the market and investors showing fear, a selective approach is wise rather than risking broadly. Hold your positions, monitor technicals, and wait for better opportunities.