Bitcoin Drops Below 115,000 USD But the Bullish Cycle is Not Over Yet

The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant price correction as Bitcoin fell below the 115,000 USD threshold, marking its lowest point in recent months. Despite this notable decline, recent on-chain analysis suggests that Bitcoin's bullish cycle may still have room for growth before reaching its final peak. This article examines the current market dynamics and key indicators that suggest caution rather than panic among investors, while exploring the question of Bitcoin's valuation trajectory in 2025.

Distribution Wave from Long-Term Investors

Recent on-chain data reveals a significant shift in market behavior among long-term Bitcoin holders. According to analyst Joao Wedson's analysis, the holding cycle of the Long-Term Holders (LTH) group appears to be reaching a critical juncture. While the broader cryptocurrency market continues to benefit from institutional adoption and digital asset investment vehicles, long-term investors have begun substantial offloading of their positions.

The data indicates that approximately 50% of the Bitcoin held within major investment products has been distributed by the LTH group, representing a major distribution phase. However, despite this selling pressure, analyst projections remain optimistic. Wedson predicts that Bitcoin's bull market will likely persist for at least another 2 months, with alternative cryptocurrency cycles potentially extending 3 months beyond that timeframe. This suggests that while the pace of growth may moderate, the overall bullish trajectory remains intact.

4 Important On-Chain Indicators

To substantiate the assessment of current market conditions, four critical on-chain indicators provide quantifiable insights into market dynamics:

Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) – Terminal Adjusted Version measures the volume of Bitcoin that has remained dormant for extended periods and is now entering circulation. Historical analysis demonstrates significant movement patterns of long-held Bitcoin, which have generated 3 distinct warning signals that coincided with local market peaks. This indicator serves as an early warning system for potential market corrections.

Reserve Risk Indicator quantifies the confidence level of long-term holders relative to current price levels. Currently, this indicator has entered the warning zone, clearly reflecting heightened selling activity and increased BTC transfer velocity among major holders. The escalation of this metric suggests growing uncertainty among sophisticated investors.

Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal analyzes whether Bitcoin transactions are occurring at profit or loss levels. Recent SOPR readings have turned bearish, indicating accelerating profit-taking throughout the market as investors capitalize on previous gains.

Bitcoin Cycle Market Top Prediction – Max Intersect SMA Model represents Wedson's assessment as the most reliable indicator for identifying the macroeconomic peak of Bitcoin cycles. Notably, this indicator has not yet signaled a conclusive price decline. According to the analytical framework, when the model's indicator line reaches the 69,000 USD threshold, the market would likely be approaching its cycle peak. Since current price levels remain substantially above this trigger point, considerable upside potential exists.

Not the Time to Panic

Although multiple technical indicators have begun flashing warning signals, comprehensive analysis suggests that market participants should maintain rational perspective rather than succumb to panic selling. Wedson emphasizes that current evidence does not conclusively confirm the market has reached its ultimate cycle peak. Historical Bitcoin cycle patterns demonstrate that even during phases characterized by elevated volatility and aggressive selling pressure from long-term holders, significant price appreciation opportunities remain available.

At current market conditions with Bitcoin trading near 113,052 USD and exhibiting recent price volatility, market participants are advised to exercise caution and maintain disciplined risk management. Understanding Bitcoin's valuation dynamics in 2025 requires monitoring evolving on-chain metrics to identify genuine high-risk points within the cycle. Rather than reacting emotionally to short-term price movements, investors should utilize this data-driven approach to enable informed decision-making based on fundamental indicators rather than sentiment-driven market noise.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's current price action below 115,000 USD reflects a natural consolidation phase within a broader bullish cycle rather than a definitive trend reversal. While long-term holders are increasing their distribution activity and multiple warning indicators have been activated, macro-level analysis suggests the bull market retains substantial momentum. The convergence of multiple analytical frameworks indicates continued growth potential for Bitcoin extending 2+ months and alternative cryptocurrencies extending 3+ months. Investors seeking to understand Bitcoin's cost trajectory in 2025 should balance awareness of emerging risks with recognition of remaining upside potential, utilizing on-chain data as their primary decision-making framework during this volatile period.

FAQ

How much will Bitcoin cost in 2026?

Bitcoin is projected to reach approximately 150,000 USD by the end of 2026, according to analyst forecasts. However, the actual price will depend on market conditions, adoption rates, and macroeconomic factors.

Ile jest wart 1 Bitcoin?

1 Bitcoin is currently worth approximately $89,500 USD. The price fluctuates constantly based on market demand and trading activity. Bitcoin remains the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

What did 1 Bitcoin cost 10 years ago?

Ten years ago in August 2014, 1 Bitcoin was trading around 500 USD, equivalent to approximately 1,600 PLN. This represented a fraction of its current value, demonstrating Bitcoin's significant long-term growth trajectory in the cryptocurrency market.

Is it worth buying Bitcoin for 100 PLN?

Buying Bitcoin for 100 PLN is a small investment. While any amount can grow over time, such minimal investments generate modest returns. Bitcoin remains volatile and unpredictable. Consider starting with larger amounts for more meaningful potential gains.