U.S. December Rate Cut Forecast: Will the Federal Reserve Hit the Pause Button?

Current U.S. Economic Overview

By the second half of 2025, the U.S. economy has moved from its rapid post-pandemic recovery into a phase of moderate growth and gradually easing inflation, though uncertainty persists. In October, the Federal Reserve announced it had lowered the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. Private sector layoffs, as indicated by labor market data, have contributed to ongoing inflation and mounting employment pressure. This makes the decision to cut rates a particularly sensitive topic.

Federal Reserve Officials Hold Divergent Views

Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/feds-waller-says-weak-job-market-justifies-rate-cut-december-2025-11-17

There is a sharp divide within the Federal Reserve over a potential December rate cut. Governor Christopher Waller has openly supported a 0.25 percentage point rate reduction at the December meeting, citing an “almost stalled” labor market and inflation nearing the Fed’s target. In contrast, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson has cautioned that, given lagging data and inflation not yet reaching its floor, further rate cuts should proceed “slowly.” Several regional Fed presidents have also emphasized that unless there are clearer signs of labor market weakness or inflation easing, they would prefer to hold off on rate cuts. The Fed must balance its dual mandate of controlling inflation and promoting employment, which increases uncertainty about the upcoming rate decision.

Market Expectations and Probability for a December Rate Cut

Recent statistics show that market expectations for a December rate cut have dropped from around 70% to roughly 50%. According to Reuters, short-term interest rate futures now indicate the odds of a rate cut at the December 10 meeting are “about 50/50.”

This shift reflects:

• Investor uncertainty about further labor market weakness;
• Inflation, though easing, remains above the 2% target;
• Delays in official data releases and decreased transparency, increasing overall uncertainty.

As a result, the outlook for a U.S. rate cut in December is best described as “possible but uncertain.”

Potential Impact of a Rate Cut on Businesses and Households

If the Federal Reserve does cut rates by 0.25 percentage points in December, several potential effects could follow:

• For businesses: Borrowing costs may decline slightly, giving small and midsize companies some relief when seeking financing. However, if banks don’t fully pass on the rate cut, the effect could be limited.
• For households: Mortgage and auto loan rates may decrease modestly, which would benefit groups with fixed expenses such as low- and middle-income families. Waller has noted that tighter policy is “disproportionately affecting low and middle-income households.”
• Capital markets: Growing expectations for a rate cut typically boost assets like stocks and gold. However, if investors perceive the momentum for rate cuts as weak, asset prices could decline. Interestingly, gold prices have already risen, even as expectations for a rate cut have diminished.
• Currency and exchange rates: If the U.S. cuts rates while other economies maintain or raise theirs, the dollar could come under pressure, impacting its exchange rates globally.

However, cutting rates too early could trigger a resurgence in inflation, while cutting too late might worsen an economic slowdown. This is why the Federal Reserve is exercising more caution than usual.

How Should Investors and Consumers Respond?

For most readers, facing the prospect of a U.S. rate cut in December, several strategies are worth considering:

• Monitor key data: Keep an eye on upcoming U.S. employment reports, inflation figures, and wage data. If labor conditions deteriorate significantly and inflation falls further, the likelihood of a rate cut rises.
• Adjust household budgets: If you have a mortgage or plan to apply for a loan, discuss potential rate changes with your bank, but don’t rely solely on the prospect of a rate cut.
• Asset allocation: If you anticipate a rate cut, consider increasing exposure to assets that would benefit, such as stocks and real estate. If a rate cut does not occur, bonds and cash assets may offer better defense.
• Maintain flexibility: Given the current uncertainty around monetary policy, avoid concentrating your portfolio on a single outcome. Maintaining liquidity is key.

In summary, the prospect of a U.S. rate cut in December brings both opportunities and risks. Regardless of the outcome, understanding the underlying rationale is more valuable than focusing solely on a yes-or-no answer.