Opsiyons

Looking ahead to early 2026, with marginal improvements in macro liquidity and implied volatility (IV) at relatively low levels, the market may enter a high-level consolidation and accumulation phase. Should trading volume and realized volatility rebound in tandem, BTC and ETH could see a phase-wise upside breakout.

Gate Research: Bitcoin’s short-term trend remains bearish, with prices consolidating below key resistance levels. Ethereum is also trading within a descending channel, reflecting continued uncertainty over market direction.BEEFI surged 31.72%, driven primarily by technical momentum, while ZBT jumped 35.50% following a strategic technology upgrade. This Friday marks the largest Bitcoin options expiry on record. Nvidia has agreed to acquire AI chip startup Groq for approximately $20 billion in cash, its largest acquisition to date. Meanwhile, Maple Finance completed a record-breaking single loan of $500 million, with outstanding borrows on the platform reaching an all-time high.

As the Christmas holiday approaches, global markets are entering a low-liquidity phase. Whether Donald Trump will announce the nomination of a new Fed Chair during the holiday period has become a key source of uncertainty. Meanwhile, spot gold has surged past USD 4,500 per ounce for the first time, setting a new all-time high. Rising risk-off sentiment has created a temporary “liquidity siphon” effect on high-volatility assets such as cryptocurrencies. Against this backdrop, a record USD 28.5 billion in combined BTC and ETH options are set to expire this Friday. With liquidity tightening and implied volatility (IV) declining, short-term hedging demand and gamma adjustments may amplify market fluctuations.

Gate Research: On December 19, the crypto market as a whole displayed a synchronized pullback pattern, with risk appetite continuing to cool. BTC surged briefly after the CPI-driven rally but then retreated, leaving its bearish structure unchanged; ETH followed suit in weakness, consolidating under pressure within its range. Market sentiment is primarily characterized by proactive de-risking and awaiting repricing, with the short term likely entering a phase of sideways oscillation and digestion. Tokens such as JELLYJELLY and NBLU bucked the trend and strengthened amid speculative fervor, while IR rose driven by new token listings and exchange-related activity. In terms of hotspots, $23 billion in BTC options are imminent for expiry; Lido DAO has applied for a $60 million ecosystem budget to accelerate its transformation; JPMorgan forecasts that the total stablecoin market cap will reach approximately $500–600 billion by 2028.

Over the past week, the crypto market has continued to trade in a range near key support levels. BTC and ETH both experienced several rapid rallies and pullbacks, but prices quickly returned to consolidation ranges, indicating that current price action is largely driven by existing capital repeatedly trading in a relatively thin-liquidity environment, with no clear entry of trend-driven incremental capital. At the same time, leveraged positioning has continued to unwind: options open interest (OI) declined overall and became highly concentrated around the December 26 expiry, with an estimated USD 26.5 billion in notional value set to expire. Spot trading volumes remain subdued, making prices more sensitive to marginal capital flows and further amplifying short-term volatility.

Gate Research Weekly Report: BTC and ETH have both reclaimed key psychological levels at $90,000 and $3,000, respectively, signaling a clear recovery in market sentiment. Funds are rotating across multiple sectors, including exchange tokens, Layer-1s, and meme coins. S&P downgraded Tether–USDT’s stability rating to “Weak” but Stable; the Cosmos community has initiated a new ATOM token proposal, reigniting debate over token-economic risks; and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik donated to privacy-focused communication efforts. Plasma’s token has fallen 90% from its early peak, with the project still far from delivering on its ambitious promises. Bitcoin faces a $13.6 billion monthly options expiry this Friday, with 77% of open interest sitting out-of-the-money. Resulting hedging flows may continue to amplify short-term volatility.

Dual-currency investment has attracted attention due to its simple structure and transparent returns, yet the market lacks systematic, cycle-based quantitative research and analysis of optimal entry points. This study constructs a backtesting framework in four steps: first, segmenting Bitcoin market cycles using trend and standard deviation; second, verifying that implied volatility (IV) in Bitcoin responds to both upward and downward movements, making it an effective entry signal; third, establishing “buy low / sell high” rules based on market phase; and fourth, estimating dual-currency APR using a simplified Black-Scholes model. Results indicate that the dual-factor framework of “IV-based entry + cycle-driven direction” effectively captures volatility premiums, performs particularly well in sideways markets, delivers stable returns, and supports reinvestment, providing a practical path for systematizing dual-currency investment strategies.

Gate Research: On December 15, the crypto market remained under pressure, with BTC and ETH consolidating at low levels while GT showed relative strength. FHE (+95.2%) surged on strong momentum from privacy computing narratives, Chainlink partnership, and ecosystem incentives; ICE (+46.8%) rallied amid speculative hype over token migration and mainnet transition; BAS (+48.2%) climbed sharply, driven by ERC-8004 protocol upgrades. Persistent structural selling in options continued to suppress BTC upside, with OG holders selling volatility diverging from ETF-driven call buying. Ant International is reshaping corporate treasury management using blockchain, AI, and tokenized deposits. Stable's on-chain activity has lagged expectations post-mainnet launch, highlighting ongoing challenges for differentiated stablecoin public chains.

Gate Research Daily Report: On December 15, the crypto market continued to trade under pressure, with BTC and ETH consolidating at lower levels while GT showed relative resilience. Against a weak backdrop for major assets, tokens such as FHE, ICE, and BAS moved higher against the trend, driven by catalysts including privacy computing and a Chainlink partnership, token migration and mainnet transition, and the ERC-8004 protocol upgrade—highlighting concentrated positioning in structural opportunities. Structural selling pressure in the options market continues to weigh on BTC’s upside, as ETF-driven demand for call options diverges from volatility-selling by OG holders, making a period of range-bound consolidation more likely than a swift breakout in the near term. At the same time, Ant International is reshaping enterprise treasury management through blockchain, AI, and tokenized deposits, while Stable’s mainnet launch has seen weaker-than-expected on-chain activity, underscoring the ongoing challenge for sta

This week, the crypto market remained in a volatile range amid macroeconomic disturbances, recent consecutive rate cuts by the FED have boosted short-term market sentiment, but investors’ concerns over structural issues such as long-term inflation, fiscal deficits, and the independence of monetary policy have not subsided. Additionally, the Bank of Japan’s rate hike this month is widely anticipated. Yesterday, Bitcoin spiked to a high before dropping over 2.2%, while Ethereum also surged then retraced, ending the day up 1.2%.

This week, the crypto market remained range-bound amid simultaneous macro and sentiment-driven pressures. Expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike triggered a pullback in global risk assets, while tighter liquidity weighed on market risk appetite. At the same time, rumors surrounding a potential change in the FED chair and ongoing policy uncertainty added to market caution regarding the future rate path. Despite this backdrop, BTC posted a notable rebound on Wednesday, briefly climbing back to around $93,000, showing clear signs of short-term recovery. Technically, downside support remains resilient, and the market has entered a news-driven consolidation phase.

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According to Gate Research, the crypto market experienced a choppy recovery this week under shifting macro sentiment. As retail data weakened and several Fed officials delivered dovish signals, rate-cut expectations strengthened, with the probability of a December cut rising to 84.9%. Risk assets saw a moderate improvement in sentiment. After a continuous pullback, Bitcoin found strong buying interest near $80,000 and rebounded to around $88,000, lifting major altcoins as well. However, capital flows remain cautious, ETF inflows are limited, and the broader market still reflects a weak rebound structure.

According to Gate Research, the cryptocurrency market has recently weakened overall. On the macro side, cooling expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and rising risk-off sentiment have put simultaneous pressure on equities, gold, and crypto assets. Bitcoin broke below key support levels and briefly fell under USD 90,000, erasing its year-to-date gains and declining about 27% from the intraday all-time high set on October 6. Technically, the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming a “death cross,” indicating further bearish momentum in the medium term.