Tether Equity Debate Grows as Analysts Split on Risks

Tether’s equity strength dominates debate as analysts dispute reserves and risk exposure.

Joseph says public disclosures exclude wider corporate equity and major profit flows.

Hayes warns Tether’s Bitcoin and gold holdings could pressure equity during downturns.

A dispute over Tether’s equity strength intensified, after comments from Arthur Hayes prompted fresh responses from former Citi Research crypto lead Joseph and Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino

The debate centered on Tether’s asset structure, reserve strategy, and long-term solvency claims, raising questions on how the stablecoin operator manages risk and equity across its wider group.

Joseph Outlines Broader Equity Structure

Joseph, who previously led Citi’s crypto research, argued that public reserve disclosures only show matched assets for USDT backing. He said Tether holds a separate corporate equity balance that includes mining operations, equity investments, corporate reserves and possibly more Bitcoin. This detail introduced wider context for the ongoing discussion about Tether’s real buffer.

To extend that point, he noted that Tether generates large interest income from roughly $120 billion in Treasury holdings. He said those yields produced nearly $10 billion in annual profit, which boosted the company’s ability to cover shortfalls through equity sales.

Ardoino Cites Strong Group Equity

Ardoino responded with figures from Tether’s Q3 2025 attestation. He said the company held about $7 billion in excess equity on top of $184.5 billion in stablecoin reserves. He added that Tether’s retained earnings stood near $23 billion, bringing total group assets to roughly $215 billion

He said critics like S&P did not factor in monthly base profits of about $500 million from Treasury yields. That reaction linked directly to ongoing criticism from analysts who claim Tether faces higher risk due to exposure to Bitcoin, gold, and secured loans.

Hayes Warns on Riskier Allocation Shift

Hayes said Tether appeared to increase its allocations to Bitcoin and gold ahead of a possible rate-cut cycle. He said a 30% drop in those assets could erase group equity and create pressure on USDT

He based this view on the latest reserve report that showed $181 billion in backing assets, which also included $13 billion in precious metals, $10 billion in Bitcoin, and more than $14 billion in secured loans.

This exchange kept attention on how stablecoin operators handle market swings while navigating higher scrutiny from analysts and rating firms.

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