The deep meaning of the investment loss in Bitcoin #BTC 能否突破90k？ is essentially a conflict between human weaknesses, market rules, and idealistic technological visions. This is not only a financial phenomenon but also a comprehensive reflection of social psychology, philosophy, and institutional design. Below is a layer-by-layer analysis:

---
1. The Eternal Struggle Between Human Nature and the Market
The Bitcoin market acts like a magnifying glass, exposing the weaknesses of human nature:
1. The Accelerating Cycle of Greed and Fear
- Traditional financial markets have bull and bear cycles typically lasting 5-8 years, while Bitcoin has compressed this to 2-3 years. The speed of price fluctuations far exceeds the threshold of human psychological tolerance, resulting in a very short window for rational decision-making.
- Case: From 10,000 to 69,000 USD, Bitcoin took only 1 year from 2020 to 2021, while it took only 6 months to be cut in half. Ordinary people are repeatedly harvested in the midst of celebration and collapse.
2. The Erosion of Discipline by "Quick Success Myths"
- The cryptocurrency market is filled with stories of "100x coins" and "getting rich overnight," which encourages ordinary people to abandon long-termism in favor of short-term gambling-like operations.
- Data: According to Chainalysis, in 2021 nearly 40% of Bitcoin holders held their coins for less than 30 days, while only 14% held them for over 5 years.
3. Responsibility Transfer Under the Illusion of Decentralization
- Many people mistakenly equate "code is law" with zero risk, ignoring the responsibilities of self-managing private keys and identifying contract vulnerabilities. Once a mistake occurs (such as erroneous transfers or loss of private keys), the losses are irreversible.
---
2. Structural Traps in the Cryptocurrency Market
The vision of Bitcoin's "utopia" fundamentally contradicts the actual rules of the market:
1. Decentralized ideals vs Centralized reality
- Despite the decentralized nature of the Bitcoin network, transactions, lending, derivatives, and other aspects are still dominated by centralized exchanges (CEX). The moral hazards of CEX, such as embezzlement of customer assets and insider trading, have become systemic vulnerabilities.
- Example: Before the FTX collapse, user assets were used to purchase luxury homes and make political donations, but ordinary investors were left in the dark.
2. Free Market vs Market Makers
- In the circulation of Bitcoin, about 2% of addresses control 95% of the chips (Whale Alert data). Whales can create "false breakthroughs" and "long and short kills" through concentrated buying and selling, while retail investors are like lambs awaiting slaughter.
3. Technological Democratization vs Information Feudalism
- On-chain data appears transparent, but ordinary investors lack analytical tools, while institutions use AI to monitor on-chain activities (such as Grayscale's holding changes), resulting in information asymmetry.
---
3. The Tear Between Technological Utopia and Capital Logic
Bitcoin was initially envisioned as a "tool against the rampant issuance of fiat currency," but reality has evolved into a capital game:
1. Ideal: Anti-inflation store of value asset
- The Satoshi Nakamoto white paper emphasizes a "peer-to-peer electronic cash system," but nowadays Bitcoin is more regarded as a speculative asset. In 2023, its price had a correlation of 0.7 with U.S. stocks (such as Nasdaq), deviating from its original anti-inflation intention.
2. Reality: Financialization and Bubble Tools
- Institutions incorporate Bitcoin futures, ETFs, staking loans, etc. into the traditional financial system, with prices dominated by macro factors such as Federal Reserve policies and dollar liquidity, becoming tools for capital arbitrage.
3. Technical narratives have devolved into marketing jargon
- Concepts like "Web3 revolution" and "DAO governance" are being abused, with numerous projects using decentralization as a gimmick, while in reality, the token distribution is still controlled by VCs and founding teams. Retail investors pay for ideals, while whales take the opportunity to sell off.
---
4. Collective Hypnosis of Social Psychology
The cryptocurrency market has built a self-reinforcing belief system:
1. Religious dissemination mechanism
- Memes such as "HODL" and "To the Moon" have gone viral through social media, turning investment behavior into identity, and dissenters have been ostracized by the community.
2. The Misleading Nature of Survivorship Bias
- A few cases of getting rich quickly are exaggerated, while the silent majority of losers are unwilling to admit failure. A CoinGecko survey shows that only 12% of investors are willing to publicly discuss their losses.
3. Anti-authoritarian sentiment is exploited by capital
- Young people's distrust of the traditional financial system is packaged as a "financial revolution", while ignoring the fact that the crypto market is similarly controlled by power structures (mining pools, exchanges, VCs).
---
5. Institutional Vacuum and Regulatory Games
Bitcoin is walking on the edge of the law, forming a regulatory arbitrage black hole:
1. Regulatory Lag
- The accounting treatment, tax rules, and compliance standards for cryptocurrencies vary by country and have not yet been unified, making ordinary investors vulnerable to sudden changes in policy (such as China's crackdown and the SEC lawsuit in the United States).
2. Gray Operations in Offshore Havens
- Project parties often register in places like the Cayman Islands and Seychelles, using legal ambiguity to evade accountability. Once they run away, the cost for investors to seek cross-border protection of their rights is extremely high.
3. The Power Restructuring Behind Compliance
- The approval of a bitcoin ETF in the U.S. may seem positive, but it actually shifts the pricing power from miners to traditional institutions such as BlackRock, and retail investors still have to pay high management fees, which does not change the weak position.
---
Conclusion: The shackles behind freedom
The ultimate metaphor for the phenomenon of Bitcoin losses is: humanity's attempt to transcend human weaknesses through technology has, instead, been alienated into a more brutal gaming tool. Its deep contradictions are reflected in:
- Technological Idealism vs Capital Bloodthirstiness
- Individual pursuit of freedom vs systemic exploitation
- Decentralized Vision vs Re-Centralized Reality
Unless ordinary people establish a robust cognitive system (such as understanding on-chain data, resisting FOMO, and cold storage of assets), the so-called "long-term holding guarantees profit" is just the hindsight of survivors. The true winners are often those "rational gamblers" who see through the rules of the game yet still adhere to discipline. (Forward)