#Bitcoin Market Update

Bitcoin Market Update
As of September 5, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $112,685, showing a 1.75% increase over the last 24 hours. However, with a 0.42% decline over the past 7 days, BTC exhibits signs of short-term weakness. Technical indicators suggest the market is in a neutral position; the RSI (Relative Strength Index) stands at 48.10, indicating it is neither in oversold nor overbought territory.
On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average is trending downward, signaling a weakening short-term trend. In contrast, the 200-day moving average on the weekly chart has been rising since February 16, 2025, suggesting a still bullish medium-term outlook. Resistance levels are concentrated between $114,000 and $116,500, while support is found in the $106,000-$109,500 range. If BTC decisively breaks above $114,500, a rally toward $122,000 could be possible. However, a drop below $106,000 increases the risk of a pullback to $102,000-$104,000.
Macroeconomic Factors and Institutional Interest
Bitcoin’s price movements are strongly influenced by macroeconomic developments. The likelihood of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) during its September 17-18, 2025, meeting is boosting market optimism. According to Polymarket and CME FedWatch data, there is an 80-87% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction. Rate cuts could enhance the appeal of risk assets like Bitcoin, as a low-interest environment supports liquidity.
Institutional demand remains a key factor supporting Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin spot ETFs, approved in early 2024, have attracted $50 billion in net inflows by July 2025, reducing volatility by 75%. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) alone holds $65 billion in BTC, providing significant institutional liquidity. Additionally, public companies’ Bitcoin holdings have increased by 31% since the start of 2025, reaching $349 billion and accounting for 15% of the total supply, reinforcing Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative.
Historical Trends and September Effect
September is historically a weak month for Bitcoin, with an average decline of 3.77% since 2013 and price drops in 8 out of 11 years. However, there are signs that the “Red September” pattern might break in 2025. Analyst Rekt Fencer suggests similarities between the price movements of 2017 and 2025, predicting a potential recovery toward $124,500. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle (shaped around halving events) may be disrupted this year, potentially leading to more liquid and macro-correlated behavior.
Ongoing Institutional Purchases: The top 100 companies holding a total of 995,000 BTC (~4.5% of supply) continue to lock up Bitcoin’s circulating supply. Firms like Green Minerals AS and Strategy have made new purchases.
Regulation and Policy
The U.S. Senate’s GENIUS Act, which tightens regulations on stablecoins, may increase capital flows into “untouchable” assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Additionally, the Trump administration’s crypto-friendly policies are providing market support.
Macro Risks: Geopolitical events, such as tensions between Israel and Iran, could increase short-term volatility. However, Bitcoin’s perception as a “geopolitical hedge” in the long term may support its price.