#美联储降息25个基点 #XRP ETF上线 #BTC战略储备市场影响

Policy benefits and regulatory breakthroughs have brought a medium to long-term opportunity period for crypto assets.

With the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and XRP ETF reaching record highs, the crypto market is undergoing a historic transition from fringe speculation to mainstream allocation.

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the September policy meeting, initiating a new round of easing. At the same time, the first XRP ETF in the United States attracted $38 million in inflows on its first day of listing, becoming the largest ETF launch product of 2025.

On the other hand, the advancement of the U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act (H.R. 1566) signifies that the government may lock a large amount of Bitcoin in the treasury. These events collectively depict a picture of structural transformation in the cryptocurrency market: institutional funds, policy dividends, and regulatory breakthroughs are synergizing to push crypto assets from speculative attributes towards allocation attributes.

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01 Three major trends resonate, solidifying long-term positive outlook for the crypto market.

The Fed's dot plot shows that more than half of the officials support three rate cuts in 2025, totaling a reduction of 75 basis points. This shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy provides strong support for the crypto market.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has lowered the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, thereby driving the repricing of risk assets. As the asset class with the highest risk coefficient, the cryptocurrency market is expected to experience significant valuation repair.

At the same time, significant breakthroughs have also emerged in regulatory aspects. The U.S. SEC has approved a universal listing standard for commodity trusts, allowing spot commodity ETFs (including cryptocurrency ETFs) to be automatically listed after meeting standardized criteria, without the need for case-by-case approval. This policy change has cleared obstacles for the listing of more crypto ETFs.

The asset allocation of institutional investors is changing. According to the asset allocation report for the third quarter of 2025 released by Bybit, investors are continuously reducing their holdings in stablecoins and reallocating to altcoins such as SOL and XRP. Although BTC and ETH remain core assets, their concentration has decreased from 58.8% in May to 55.7% in August.

02 XRP ETF listing and on-chain development, opening up growth space for altcoins

The successful launch of the XRP ETF has become a highlight of the ETF market in 2025. The XRP ETF launched by Rex Shares and Osprey Funds achieved a trading volume of approximately $24 million shortly after its launch, surpassing the performance of some traditional ETF products.

This success is not only reflected in XRP, but the Dogecoin ETF among similar products also achieved a strong performance of 17 million dollars on its first day. This indicates that investor interest in altcoin investments is on the rise.

Elon Musk's artificial intelligence platform Grok predicts that the XRP ETF in its debut phase could attract between 150 million to 2 billion dollars in capital inflow. Even if the actual results are close to the lower end of the predicted range, it will still bring considerable incremental capital to the XRP market.

The development of on-chain ecosystems has also laid the foundation for the widespread application of cryptocurrencies. The trend of tokenizing RWA (Real World Assets) is accelerating, expanding from government bonds to private credit, commodities, institutional funds, stocks, and real estate. On-chain capital markets are undergoing structural upgrades, with significant improvements in liquidity, composability, and retail participation.

03 The strategic reserve status of Bitcoin is consolidated, and the long-term value support is strengthened.

The adoption of Bitcoin by enterprises has reached a critical turning point. It is expected that by mid-2025, more than 90 publicly listed companies will hold a total of 848,902 Bitcoins, with a total value of up to $92.77 billion.

This trend marks a redefinition of corporate financial strategies: Bitcoin has transformed from a speculative investment tool into a hedge against macroeconomic instability.

The advancement of the U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act may trigger more far-reaching market impacts. The U.S. Treasury currently has approximately 29,000 Bitcoins "fully confiscated," and about 198,000 Bitcoins are in the confiscation process.

If the Treasury Department decides to lock these bitcoins in reserves, it will significantly reduce the available supply in the market.

Miners currently generate about 450 bitcoins per day, totaling 40,500 bitcoins over a 90-day period. If the treasury only locks up the seized 29,000 bitcoins, it would absorb 71% of the miners' supply over the 90 days. This change in supply and demand dynamics could provide strong support for the price of bitcoin.

04 Risks and challenges coexist, rational layout for the medium and long term.

Despite the positive medium- to long-term outlook, investors also need to be aware of potential risks. The price volatility of Bitcoin remains a double-edged sword. For example, a 10% drop in Bitcoin's price could lead to a 15% to 20% decline in the stock prices of companies holding large amounts of BTC assets.

The cryptocurrency market is also highly sensitive to changes in macroeconomic factors. During the "Triple Witching Day" in September, the cryptocurrency market experienced a 15% intraday volatility, highlighting the fragility of market sentiment in a low interest rate environment. Smaller altcoins often experience more severe pullbacks, reflecting the uneven impact of macroeconomic changes on different asset classes.

For investors, adopting a rigorous risk management strategy is crucial. This includes diversifying asset classes, maintaining low leverage, and closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators. For investors with a long-term perspective, each market correction may present an opportunity for positioning.

With the improvement of regulatory frameworks and the maturation of market infrastructure, crypto assets are becoming an indispensable component of global asset allocation. Investors should consider incorporating crypto assets into a diversified portfolio and allocate an appropriate proportion based on their risk tolerance.

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As more institutional investors enter the market, the volatility of the crypto market may gradually decrease, and the connection with the traditional financial system will become closer. The corporate Bitcoin holdings have surpassed the 3% mark, which is a historic shift.

In the next three to five years, as more sovereign nations consider incorporating Bitcoin into their reserve assets and the on-chain RWA (real-world assets) market matures, crypto assets are expected to become a new hub for global cross-border asset flows.

Investors who can assess the situation and focus on risk management while pursuing growth potential are most likely to achieve long-term returns in this transformation.