#晒出我的持仓收益 #aster

aster market analysis
Brothers, start laying out long positions from September 28. Except for aster, sol, doge, and eth are all profitable, and can completely cover the losses of aster. Last night, aster at 1.7 was a good stop-loss position, but I didn't stop-loss. Let me share my thoughts. First of all, I did open long positions in aster based on the overall market trend of the cryptocurrency sector, but the mistakes were: 1. aster is a new coin, new coins often do not follow the trends of the cryptocurrency market; 2. aster will unlock on October 5, and I forgot about this when I opened the position... Now let me explain my continued holding logic. First, aster is indeed a star coin, the overall market is great, the narrative is good, and it has the support of big players like cz. If you say it just went up for three days after listing and then collapsed, I don't believe it. This way, cz would become regarded as the same type as Sun. The main issue is still the unlocking. Look at coins like sol, they all get dumped before unlocking and generally rally after unlocking. Why? Some say this is to digest the negative impact in advance, which can be understood that way, but my understanding is, think about it: if a coin is suddenly going to have a large amount released in a few days, to stabilize the coin price and prevent it from crashing, what should you do? You definitely want to make sure that these newly released coins are not sold. So we have a few options: 1. Keep this coin at a high position, so once unlocked, when everyone sees the price is high, many will definitely sell, cashing out. This definitely won't work, as the price might plummet after unlocking. 2. Keep this coin at a low position, but this would make those who have been locked for a long time think the coin has no hope, leading to a consecutive sell-off, and then the coin would really be finished.
So what should we do? I think the brothers might have thought of it, which is to maintain the coin price at a relatively low level, while also letting those who are holding locked coins see the hope of future increases. This way, when the unlocking day comes, they will think that the current coin price is still relatively low and not suitable for selling, and that there will be significant increases in the future.
In this case, it's easy to understand the previous drop before unlocking. Condition 1: it must be at a relatively low position (1.3-1.8), and it must show strong support to others, and the support cannot be too low (currently 1.5). Condition 3: the closer it gets to the unlocking date, the more it should gradually start to rise, but it is very unlikely to break through; it's just to give those holding the coins a glimpse of hope for a rise. Currently, all three of these conditions are fully met, so I choose to continue holding and will consider reducing my position after the unlocking on October 5, depending on the situation.
So with this kind of thinking, when the unlock happens on October 5th, and everyone sees that so many coins flow into the market without crashing, and even continue to rise, what will you do? You will definitely buy buy buy! So the rise actually starts after the unlock!