Market news reports that the record-breaking government shutdown in the US may be coming to an end. As a result, US stocks rose significantly on Monday, but the good times didn't last long—October's US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) forecast indicates that job positions may decrease by around 50,000, marking the steepest decline since 2020. On Tuesday, US stocks weakened in response, and the crypto market couldn't escape unscathed.

However, there is a data point worth noting: the market expectation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December has soared to 85%. The recent short positions were timed very well, and friends who kept up with the rhythm should have easily secured a profit range of 3500 to 4000 points. Of course, if you opened a long position, that would be quite regrettable.

Let’s take a look at the technical aspects. The BTC daily chart shows a switch between bullish and bearish candles. Although the US stock market rebounded strongly after a low opening yesterday, the cryptocurrency prices did not keep up and instead weakened. There is an empirical rule here—historically, after a government shutdown ends, the market often experiences a wave of retaliatory rebound. So blindly shorting now might not be wise. The four-hour chart has already formed a doji candle with a long lower shadow, and the KDJ fast line shows signs of turning up at a low level. I still think the idea of buying on a pullback is reliable.

**11.12 Operation Suggestions:**

**Long Position:**
The current price range for BTC is 102500-103000, which can be considered for entry. For those seeking stability, wait for 101500-102000 to take action, with a stop-loss set around 101000. The first target is set at 104000-105000, and after breaking through, pay attention to the levels of 106000-107000 and even 107500. Adjust the stop-loss to protect profits based on the trend.

The current price of ETH at 3400-3425 can be positioned, while conservative investors wait for 3330-3360, with a defensive line set near 3300. The targets are sequentially at 3500, 3550, and 3600, and if it breaks through, then focus on 3650-3680, and remember to move the stop loss.

**Short Position:**
If BTC rebounds to 107000-107500, you can short with a light position, defend at 108200, and target 106000-105500. If it breaks, continue to look at 105000-104500, and then move the stop loss to lock in profits.

ETH rebounds to 3650-3680, you can try a short position, with a stop loss at 3720 and targets at 3600, 3570, 3550. If it breaks, then look at the 3530-3500 area.

I almost forgot yesterday, ETH's daily line closed with a very standard doji. Otherwise, I wouldn't have waited for that resistance level above to enter the market. I did miss the short position on ETH, but the short position on BTC was really well timed, and I made a great profit!